The Detroit Tigers, of course.
Detroit receives Jose Iglesias, a young shortstop who is a wizard with the glove and has shown some promise with the bat at the Major League level -- a point of much polarizing debate for many fans in Boston. But even if he bats .220 for the rest of the season, he improves the Tigers' team fielding (which, surprisingly, hasn't been that bad this year) by taking over for an average Jhonny Peralta; who is just going to get suspended anyway.
With Iglesias at short, he makes up for some range lost by having Miguel Cabrera play third base. This will improve Detroit's starting pitchers, who were already doing a decent job of pitching around their defense to get outs and wins. Max Scherzer leads the AL with 15 wins, and only one Detroit starter has an ERA above 4.00.
The Red Sox get Jake Peavy, but they have opened up third base to be manned by a revolving door of minor league players. If Stephen Drew suffers another injury, then both shortstop and third base will share that revolving door of minor leaguers. Bringing prospects up has worked well sometimes for the Red Sox this season -- see, errr, Jose Iglesias -- but the Red Sox have placed themselves in a position where they are depending upon undependable wildcards at third base for the rest of the season. This trade has the potential to blow up in Ben's face.
Peavy hasn't been that great this season, either. It could be argued that Brandon Workman would have done a better job starting games. We'll assume, right now, this strengthens the pitching staff by getting an experienced starter and placing a promising prrospect in the bullpen. We're going to have to wait and see, though.
As for Chicago, they get three prospects that nobody really cared about.
To summarize the Peavy/Iglesias trade: Detroit fortified their team, Red Sox may have improved their pitching but left themselves a ticking timebomb at third base. If the Red Sox make it to the ALCS, Detroit will likely be waiting for them. I'd hate to see Iggy playing well in such a situation.
Wednesday, July 31, 2013
Thursday, July 18, 2013
Should Buchholz be a starting pitcher?
Nobody ever questions whether or not Buchholz should be a starting pitcher. It's a given that he's a starter, just like it's a given that Will Middlebrooks was going to be the Red ox starting third baseman for 2013 ... Errr, wait, that didn't work out.
Sometimes, the role a player is thrust into isn't the best fit.
Where Buchholz is concerned, first we should define what a "starting pitcher" is. Since there are five pitchers in the starting rotation, what you want out of a starter can vary. If a pitcher is in the bottom end of the rotation, you expect them to log 170-190 innings pitched and keep the team in the game for 65-75% of their starts. But if the starter is a top of the rotation ace, then you must depend on them to pitch over 200 innings and keep the team in over 90% of the games they start.
Given these definitions, we can reasonably claim that a start should be reliable enough to pitch at least 170 innings a season. Clay Buchholz has had five seasons to accomplish this most modest of goals for a starting pitch, yet he's only pitched over 170 innings in a season twice. This season is Buchholz's sixth chance to accomplish this goal, but I'm doubtful he will do it.
Observing this objectively, without bias, one can only surmise that Buchholz has not been a dependable starter for the Red Sox.
We could ask "Why?" and partake in endless amounts of speculation regarding Buchholz's failure to be a normal starting pitcher, nevermind the staff ace that we all know he has the talent to be, but I don't see a point to undertaking that exercise. We have to focus on what is and is not, and Buchholz is not a reliable starter.
I'm not sure what role Buchholz should have for the Red Sox, but it must be one where he's not forced to try and pitch 170-200+ innings. Should he serve as a longman/spot starter out of the bullpen? Possibly, since that's a common position for failed starting positions. Personally, I'd love it if the Red Sox experimented with making him a closer; especially since this organization has had so much trouble finding a reliable closer after letting Papelbon walk.
Some off your will scream at this suggestion, pointing to the fact that Buchholz doesn't have a loss this season and his ERA is under 2.00. The potential for greatness is there -- and I agree. We've all seen it this season, just like we all saw it in 2007. But Buchholz is still on the disabled list; a spot he occupied in 2012, 2011, and 2010. Fact is Buchholz has not been a successful starter at the Major League level. The Sox have a few pitching prospects who will be ready for MLB level soon, so the time for the Sox to define what Buchholz's role is -- and whether he'll ever become a dependable starter -- is now.
Saturday, June 22, 2013
Defining Middlebrooks
What is Will Middlebrooks: a major league player or a prospect? More importantly, why isn't anyone asking this question?
It is assumed that Middlebrooks is the first option, a big leaguer. Discussion about Middlebrooks and his "recent" struggles are done under the terms that, somehow, Middlebrooks is a semi-veteran player who just needs to stay in lineup until, as I heard on NESN before one game, "his swing comes around". This discussion is framed around the assumption that Middlebrooks is on the level of veterans like Pedroia or Big Papi, who have produced after periods of struggling at the plate.
But, if Middlebrooks is actually a prospect, would that change the whole tenor of the discussion around his struggles at the plate? Perhaps the framing of this discussion should be adjusted.
To the statsmobile, Batman!
Here are a couple monthly stat lines for Middlebrooks:
Month #1: .194 BA, .286 OBP, 6 H, 0 2B, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 8 K
Month #2: .194 BA, .223 OBP, 19 H, 4 2B, 6 HR, 12 RBI, 32 K
So, what months did I pull these stats from? These are reflective of Middlebrooks' "recent" struggles, so both of these months have to be from 2013, right?
Wrong -- Month #1 is Middlebrooks' stat line from August 2012, before he broke his wrist. Looking at that stat line, nobody can say that Middlebrooks wasn't struggling then; and he's still struggling now. Therefore, his struggles are hardly a recent occurrence. Middlebrooks isn't mired in a slump that he can swing his way out of, something else is going on.
Month #2, by the way, are Middlebrooks' numbers in April 2013. If you want to bring his latest numbers into the mix, you'll find that he's batting .138 with a .194 OBP this month. Since returning from the disabled list, Middlebrooks has managed to drop his batting average from .199 down to .192.
If a prospect is called up to fill in for an injured player and he catches on fire for a couple months before teams adjust their scouting reports and learn how to pitch against him, is he now a major league player or still a prospect that needs development? To me, this is a rhetorical question. Middlebrooks does not have the major league experience under his belt to make the assumption that he'll get out of this slump like any other veteran; he just continues to sink.
In some small market organizations, letting a prospect struggle at the major league level is part of the development process. The Royals called up Alex Gordon and let him suck for a couple of seasons before he finally started producing. The Red Sox, though, spend big money and they have never been apt to give a prospect development time in the starting lineup. Those players are sent to Portland or Pawtucket and told to keep improving as a player and wait their turn.
Why is Middlebrooks treated differently? Why is he this golden boy born as a big leaguer? Why hasn't reality seeped into the conversation about his struggles-cum-development? And to continue treating Middlebrooks like this when the other option to play third base is hitting over .400 with a 23 game streak of getting on base, and he only has one fielding error at third compared to Middlebrooks' 8 errors? Honestly, I just don't get it.
Thursday, June 6, 2013
Napoli and the Mask of Overachieving
Guess what? It's time for me to bitch about Mike Napoli again. I know, I know. I should get a life, right? Or find something else to talk about? Hell, maybe I should comment on how well the Red Sox are doing instead of always looking for something negative, right?
Perhaps.
One positive aspect of the Red Sox loss against the Rangers last night was that that the game was close, and it felt like the Sox might be able to pull off a come from behind victory at any time. Lackey had a great start, as well, limiting the Rangers' playoff-caliber hitting to a run over six innings.
Jose Iglesais continues to place himself on the short list for Rookie of the Year candidates by getting a single in the 7th, extending his hitting streak to nine games while moving a baserunner to second. The Sox didn't score, unfortunately, but one must wonder if Iglesais could help drive in runs if he was hitting second instead of ninth. Either way, with Middlebrooks being told that his stay in Pawtucket will be extended until he shapes the fuck up, the front office seems ready to adopt the ethos of placing the best team on the field instead of using players that gross money from Pink Hat merchandise sales. Now, if Salty could only be moved to place Lavarnway in the lineup...
The bad part is that you could see this loss coming from a mile away because Alexi Ogando was starting for the Rangers, and the Red Sox have a tough time winning against pitchers who have an ERA under 3.00. Some of you might have questions when I point this out, such as: "What's the big fucking deal? Doesn't every team have difficulty against good starters? Isn't that baseball? Don't you realize that the Red Sox have the most runs scored in the Majors right now? What the fuck is wrong with you?"
I could sit back and enjoy seeing the 2013 Red Sox run up 17-5 victories against shitty pitching while shrugging off close losses to spectacular pitching, but witnessing the latter reveals more than the former because it shows deficiencies with this team that will become more pronounced as their schedule becomes more difficult in August and September, with plenty of games against the Yankees, Rays and Baltimore; along with a series against teams with great starters like the Tigers, Diamondbacks and Dodgers. If the Red Sox make it to the playoffs after all of that, most of the pitching they will face will make last night's starter, Alexi Ogando, look pedestrian.
What would bring the overachieving Red Sox hitting over the hump is another hitter in the meat of their order that can produce against great pitchers. And that brings me back to Mike Napoli because, so far, Mike Napoli hasn't been that hitter.
How many home runs has Napoli hit off of pitchers who have an ERA under 3.00? None.
How many homers has Napoli hit off pitchers with an ERA under 4.00? Three, and two were against relievers. The only questionably "tough" starter that Napoli has teed off against is Jeremy Guthrie.
Conversely, how many homers has Napoli hit against pitchers with an ERA above 5.00? Four.
As I've mentioned before (and repeatedly) in tweets, 5 of Napoli's 9 homers have come against the Blue Jays.
The Red Sox don't have this problem with David Ortiz -- he has made a career off of hammering great pitching. This year, we've already seen Big Papi rake against Yu Darvish, Matt Moore and Hiroki Kuroda.
Napoli has gotten some RBIs off fielder's choice balls and sacrifice flies against decent pitchers, so at least he can put the ball in play when runners are on base to make something happen. And, as evidenced by his stats, Napoli has a big stick against bad pitching.
The question regarding Napoli, with a third of the season over, is whether he'll be able to step it up and rake against great pitching or is he just an overachiever? The answer to this question may be the deciding factor in whether the Red Sox lineup can survive the final third of the season or regress to a .500 ballclub that doesn't make the playoffs.
Perhaps.
One positive aspect of the Red Sox loss against the Rangers last night was that that the game was close, and it felt like the Sox might be able to pull off a come from behind victory at any time. Lackey had a great start, as well, limiting the Rangers' playoff-caliber hitting to a run over six innings.
Jose Iglesais continues to place himself on the short list for Rookie of the Year candidates by getting a single in the 7th, extending his hitting streak to nine games while moving a baserunner to second. The Sox didn't score, unfortunately, but one must wonder if Iglesais could help drive in runs if he was hitting second instead of ninth. Either way, with Middlebrooks being told that his stay in Pawtucket will be extended until he shapes the fuck up, the front office seems ready to adopt the ethos of placing the best team on the field instead of using players that gross money from Pink Hat merchandise sales. Now, if Salty could only be moved to place Lavarnway in the lineup...
The bad part is that you could see this loss coming from a mile away because Alexi Ogando was starting for the Rangers, and the Red Sox have a tough time winning against pitchers who have an ERA under 3.00. Some of you might have questions when I point this out, such as: "What's the big fucking deal? Doesn't every team have difficulty against good starters? Isn't that baseball? Don't you realize that the Red Sox have the most runs scored in the Majors right now? What the fuck is wrong with you?"
I could sit back and enjoy seeing the 2013 Red Sox run up 17-5 victories against shitty pitching while shrugging off close losses to spectacular pitching, but witnessing the latter reveals more than the former because it shows deficiencies with this team that will become more pronounced as their schedule becomes more difficult in August and September, with plenty of games against the Yankees, Rays and Baltimore; along with a series against teams with great starters like the Tigers, Diamondbacks and Dodgers. If the Red Sox make it to the playoffs after all of that, most of the pitching they will face will make last night's starter, Alexi Ogando, look pedestrian.
What would bring the overachieving Red Sox hitting over the hump is another hitter in the meat of their order that can produce against great pitchers. And that brings me back to Mike Napoli because, so far, Mike Napoli hasn't been that hitter.
How many home runs has Napoli hit off of pitchers who have an ERA under 3.00? None.
How many homers has Napoli hit off pitchers with an ERA under 4.00? Three, and two were against relievers. The only questionably "tough" starter that Napoli has teed off against is Jeremy Guthrie.
Conversely, how many homers has Napoli hit against pitchers with an ERA above 5.00? Four.
As I've mentioned before (and repeatedly) in tweets, 5 of Napoli's 9 homers have come against the Blue Jays.
The Red Sox don't have this problem with David Ortiz -- he has made a career off of hammering great pitching. This year, we've already seen Big Papi rake against Yu Darvish, Matt Moore and Hiroki Kuroda.
Napoli has gotten some RBIs off fielder's choice balls and sacrifice flies against decent pitchers, so at least he can put the ball in play when runners are on base to make something happen. And, as evidenced by his stats, Napoli has a big stick against bad pitching.
The question regarding Napoli, with a third of the season over, is whether he'll be able to step it up and rake against great pitching or is he just an overachiever? The answer to this question may be the deciding factor in whether the Red Sox lineup can survive the final third of the season or regress to a .500 ballclub that doesn't make the playoffs.
Monday, May 13, 2013
Rot at the Top
Before this weekend, the Red Sox were 4-2 against Toronto this season; a team that Sox hitters happily used to pump up their stats. Napoli had already hit 4 homers off Toronto pitching this season; Middlebrooks had 3 homers in one game against Toronto during the first week of the season.
As for Toronto's pitching coming into Fenway over the weekend, they weren't bringing their A game -- in fact, they brought their AAA and AA game. Ramon Ortiz, the starter who lost to Lester on Friday, is a 39 year old whose last full MLB season was in 2007 and he's been a mainstay in the International League since then. Chad Jenkins, who pitched Sunday, is a 25 year old prospect, first round pick, and we'll probably hear his name more over the next few years. But he has under 40 innings pitched at MLB level, and he was recalled from Toronto's AA team to make his first major league start at Fenway. And centered between these two question marks was Mark Buehrle, who came into Fenway sporting a robust 7.02 ERA.
Last week, I noted that the Red Sox hitters do well against bad pitching (and especially against Toronto), but have trouble against starters with an ERA below 4.00. So this series should have been a cakewalk, right?
Well.
Let's start with the good news. Shane Victorino had quite a series, and should continue to play well if he doesn't go on the DL. He hit .400 and got on base half the time, with an OBP of .500. Victorino did his job of getting on base supremely well, so it's not his fault that he only scored one run.
Pedroia had a great series, too: .500 AVG / .538 OBP, couple of runs scored, 1 RBI, and a stolen base.
For a lineup whose 2 and 3 hitters are getting on base over 50% of the time, you would expect more than just 3 runs from the pair, right? Of course! Except Big Papi had 1 hit in 7 at-bats, and Mike Napoli had exactly zero hits in the first two games of the series. Napoli finally busted out in the third game with 3 hits and a home run -- against a pitcher making his first career start. At least Napoli did well in one game, but he still has yet to step up against good pitchers.
And then there's Ellsbury. It would help the lineup if the leadoff hitter wasn't practically an automatic out, but Ellsbury went 3 for 15 in the series -- a .200 batting average -- with no walks. And, notably, no stolen bases. Ellsbury's only shining moment was an RBI triple that he nailed off of 42 year old Darren Oliver, and nobody is sure why Oliver is still in the big leagues.
What's worse is how Ellsbury has played in the 9th inning. During the last Twins game before the Toronto series, Ellsbury drew a walk to start the 9th inning. He didn't make one attempt to steal a base before the next three hitters were retired in order. It's Ellsbury's job to either steal that base, or get in the pitcher's head and make the pitcher more apt to throw either more fastballs to batters, or make a mistake on a pitch that the batter can crush. Ellsbury is supposed to make the hitters behind him better by being a threat to steal bases -- that's his job -- and he's not doing it. Ellsbury also came to the plate in the 9th during the final two games of the Toronto series. On Saturday, with Middlebrooks on second base, Ellsbury swings at the first pitch and grounds out, ending the game. On Sunday, with Drew on first base, he strikes out looking.
Baseball has a long season, and players get into slumps. Terry Francona would manage these slumps by strategically not managing, simply keeping players in their usual batting order spots and usual roles and riding things out. So, should Ellsbury be dropped from the leadoff spot? No, not yet. Besides, he's certainly not the only hitter in this lineup who is struggling.
I won't get into the 6-9 hitters because most of the runs are supposed to be generated from the 1-5 spots. Looking at the performances of Victorino and Pedroia, things aren't as bad as they might seem (provided that Victorino doesn't go on the DL...), but the fact the lineup as a whole didn't turn their collective slump around against what was, ostensibly, some questionable pitching coming into Fenway this weekend shows us just how deep this slump is. The Red Sox aren't just failing against good pitchers, but most pitching in general now.
With the Yankees taking first place, despite their assortment of replacement players filling in before stars like Jeter get back, this might be one of the worst times for a mostly healthy Red Sox team to slump.
As for Toronto's pitching coming into Fenway over the weekend, they weren't bringing their A game -- in fact, they brought their AAA and AA game. Ramon Ortiz, the starter who lost to Lester on Friday, is a 39 year old whose last full MLB season was in 2007 and he's been a mainstay in the International League since then. Chad Jenkins, who pitched Sunday, is a 25 year old prospect, first round pick, and we'll probably hear his name more over the next few years. But he has under 40 innings pitched at MLB level, and he was recalled from Toronto's AA team to make his first major league start at Fenway. And centered between these two question marks was Mark Buehrle, who came into Fenway sporting a robust 7.02 ERA.
Last week, I noted that the Red Sox hitters do well against bad pitching (and especially against Toronto), but have trouble against starters with an ERA below 4.00. So this series should have been a cakewalk, right?
Well.
Let's start with the good news. Shane Victorino had quite a series, and should continue to play well if he doesn't go on the DL. He hit .400 and got on base half the time, with an OBP of .500. Victorino did his job of getting on base supremely well, so it's not his fault that he only scored one run.
Pedroia had a great series, too: .500 AVG / .538 OBP, couple of runs scored, 1 RBI, and a stolen base.
For a lineup whose 2 and 3 hitters are getting on base over 50% of the time, you would expect more than just 3 runs from the pair, right? Of course! Except Big Papi had 1 hit in 7 at-bats, and Mike Napoli had exactly zero hits in the first two games of the series. Napoli finally busted out in the third game with 3 hits and a home run -- against a pitcher making his first career start. At least Napoli did well in one game, but he still has yet to step up against good pitchers.
And then there's Ellsbury. It would help the lineup if the leadoff hitter wasn't practically an automatic out, but Ellsbury went 3 for 15 in the series -- a .200 batting average -- with no walks. And, notably, no stolen bases. Ellsbury's only shining moment was an RBI triple that he nailed off of 42 year old Darren Oliver, and nobody is sure why Oliver is still in the big leagues.
What's worse is how Ellsbury has played in the 9th inning. During the last Twins game before the Toronto series, Ellsbury drew a walk to start the 9th inning. He didn't make one attempt to steal a base before the next three hitters were retired in order. It's Ellsbury's job to either steal that base, or get in the pitcher's head and make the pitcher more apt to throw either more fastballs to batters, or make a mistake on a pitch that the batter can crush. Ellsbury is supposed to make the hitters behind him better by being a threat to steal bases -- that's his job -- and he's not doing it. Ellsbury also came to the plate in the 9th during the final two games of the Toronto series. On Saturday, with Middlebrooks on second base, Ellsbury swings at the first pitch and grounds out, ending the game. On Sunday, with Drew on first base, he strikes out looking.
Baseball has a long season, and players get into slumps. Terry Francona would manage these slumps by strategically not managing, simply keeping players in their usual batting order spots and usual roles and riding things out. So, should Ellsbury be dropped from the leadoff spot? No, not yet. Besides, he's certainly not the only hitter in this lineup who is struggling.
I won't get into the 6-9 hitters because most of the runs are supposed to be generated from the 1-5 spots. Looking at the performances of Victorino and Pedroia, things aren't as bad as they might seem (provided that Victorino doesn't go on the DL...), but the fact the lineup as a whole didn't turn their collective slump around against what was, ostensibly, some questionable pitching coming into Fenway this weekend shows us just how deep this slump is. The Red Sox aren't just failing against good pitchers, but most pitching in general now.
With the Yankees taking first place, despite their assortment of replacement players filling in before stars like Jeter get back, this might be one of the worst times for a mostly healthy Red Sox team to slump.
Friday, May 10, 2013
Catching options: Lavarnway, Vazquez, Ross, and fuck Salty
With the Red Sox mired in a slump right now, one has to wonder if they are fielding the best team possible with the players they currently have in the organization. And, since Jarrod Saltalamacchia is still on the 25 man roster, the answer is no.
It's tough to contextualize how bad Salty has been this season without wanting to add a number of adjectives and profanities before words like "bad", "abhorrent", "horrible", "atrocious", etc.; since that would make the writer sound ridiculous, and possibly biased. But Salty deserves it. Just look at his defensive numbers:
SB: 13 CS: 1
Percent of runners caught stealing: 7%
Passed Balls: 3
Errors: 3
I'm actually surprised that he hasn't had more passed balls. Two of his errors -- that errant throw to Napoli the other night, and a throw into right field earlier this month -- led to three runs crossing the plate. One of those passed balls got a baserunner to third as well, and they later scored. So Salty's defense has already cost the Red Sox at least 4 runs -- and that's before taking his atrocious inability to keep baserunners from stealing! Salty has caught just 7% of baserunners this season. Are you fucking kidding me? That's horrible. So it's reasonable, without bias or embellishment, to say that Salty's defense is atrociously, ridiculously, astronomically fucking terrible.
Salty's 4 HR and 9 RBI simply doesn't make up for his defense, either -- and don't get me into his fucking strikeouts. He's averaging one K every 2.48 plate appearances. Salty is just an all-around fucking bad player; and the longer he's on the 25 man roster, the more he's hurting the Red Sox chances of winning. He's not even a suitable option to be a backup catcher anymore.
Who else can the Red Sox throw behind the plate? Right now, David Ross needs to be made the primary catcher, but Ross has been a backup his whole career and he's an older player -- he can probably only be reasonably expected to play 60% of the time. He's going to need an understudy, and the answer to who that player is should probably be Ryan Lavarnway; but let's consider another catcher in the system first.
Remember one of the Sox non-top prospect catchers who dazzled everyone with his defense in spring training games? To jog your memory, the player is Christian Vazquez and he's catching for AA Portland right now. His spectacular defense has continued to shine through in Portland, too:
SB: 17 CS: 15
Percent of runners caught stealing: 47%
Passed balls: 3
Errors: 2
With a tandem of Ross and Vazquez behind the plate, opposing teams would think twice about having baserunners challenge their arms. With Salty, the only surprising thing is that only 14 baserunners have attempted steals with him behind the plate -- but as teams update their scouting reports and see Salty's deficiencies, expect the number of baserunners attempting steals to skyrocket. Yes, as bad as Salty is, the situation can become much worse.
Unfortunately, Vazquez's hitting stats aren't upto snuff: .258 AVG / .405 OBP, 2 HR, 11 RBI in 85 PA at AA. Vazquez gets on base a ton, and his batting average against LHP is a shade over .300 so maybe he could be used solely against southpaws, but it doesn't look like he's ready to hit at the MLB level yet. Which is a shame, because his defense is probably MLB ready, and I wonder if there would be some benefits of having him receive tutelage from Ross instead of playing everyday in Portland... But Vazquez is 22, had a great season at Salem in 2011 (18 HR, 84 RBI), so not rushing him to the majors is probably the safest bet.
That leaves us with the enigmatic Ryan Lavarnway. In 2011, Lavarnway looked like he was ready to clobber the fuck out of the ball at the MLB level. In 2012, he came to Boston and hit under .200. So, which Lavarnway came to play in 2013? Here are his numbers at Pawtucket:
.311 AVG / .413 OBP, 2 HR, 15 RBI, K per 7.66 PA
You know, I think Lavarnway might finally be ready. But what about his defense?
SB: 8 CS: 6
Percent of runners caught stealing: 43%
Passed balls: 8
Errors: 0
Lavarnway and Salty have each had 14 baserunners attempt steals off them, and the percent of runners Lavarnway has caught, when compared to Salty's measly 7%, just speaks for itself. As for his 8 passed balls, that seems alarming until you remember that Pawtucket has knuckleballer Steven Wright in their starting rotation -- most of those past balls are probably knuckleballs that Lavarnway wouldn't have thrown to him unless Wright is optioned upto Boston. Even then, his passed ball numbers when accounting for a knuckleball pitcher seem decent.
Bottom line here is, while Lavarnway's defense isn't as good as Vazquez's, there's no doubt that he would be a vast improvement over what Salty offers us. And Lavarnway will probably be just as good of a hitter as Salty -- probably a better hitter, if comparing Lavarnway's K:PA ratio to Salty's horrible propensity to whiff means anything.
The time has come for the Red Sox to part ways with Jarrod Saltalamacchia - a failed prospect. Offer him an assignment in Pawtucket if you want to keep him around for "depth", but Lavarnway is ready to play and Salty, well, just can't bring it.
It's tough to contextualize how bad Salty has been this season without wanting to add a number of adjectives and profanities before words like "bad", "abhorrent", "horrible", "atrocious", etc.; since that would make the writer sound ridiculous, and possibly biased. But Salty deserves it. Just look at his defensive numbers:
SB: 13 CS: 1
Percent of runners caught stealing: 7%
Passed Balls: 3
Errors: 3
I'm actually surprised that he hasn't had more passed balls. Two of his errors -- that errant throw to Napoli the other night, and a throw into right field earlier this month -- led to three runs crossing the plate. One of those passed balls got a baserunner to third as well, and they later scored. So Salty's defense has already cost the Red Sox at least 4 runs -- and that's before taking his atrocious inability to keep baserunners from stealing! Salty has caught just 7% of baserunners this season. Are you fucking kidding me? That's horrible. So it's reasonable, without bias or embellishment, to say that Salty's defense is atrociously, ridiculously, astronomically fucking terrible.
Salty's 4 HR and 9 RBI simply doesn't make up for his defense, either -- and don't get me into his fucking strikeouts. He's averaging one K every 2.48 plate appearances. Salty is just an all-around fucking bad player; and the longer he's on the 25 man roster, the more he's hurting the Red Sox chances of winning. He's not even a suitable option to be a backup catcher anymore.
Who else can the Red Sox throw behind the plate? Right now, David Ross needs to be made the primary catcher, but Ross has been a backup his whole career and he's an older player -- he can probably only be reasonably expected to play 60% of the time. He's going to need an understudy, and the answer to who that player is should probably be Ryan Lavarnway; but let's consider another catcher in the system first.
Remember one of the Sox non-top prospect catchers who dazzled everyone with his defense in spring training games? To jog your memory, the player is Christian Vazquez and he's catching for AA Portland right now. His spectacular defense has continued to shine through in Portland, too:
SB: 17 CS: 15
Percent of runners caught stealing: 47%
Passed balls: 3
Errors: 2
With a tandem of Ross and Vazquez behind the plate, opposing teams would think twice about having baserunners challenge their arms. With Salty, the only surprising thing is that only 14 baserunners have attempted steals with him behind the plate -- but as teams update their scouting reports and see Salty's deficiencies, expect the number of baserunners attempting steals to skyrocket. Yes, as bad as Salty is, the situation can become much worse.
Unfortunately, Vazquez's hitting stats aren't upto snuff: .258 AVG / .405 OBP, 2 HR, 11 RBI in 85 PA at AA. Vazquez gets on base a ton, and his batting average against LHP is a shade over .300 so maybe he could be used solely against southpaws, but it doesn't look like he's ready to hit at the MLB level yet. Which is a shame, because his defense is probably MLB ready, and I wonder if there would be some benefits of having him receive tutelage from Ross instead of playing everyday in Portland... But Vazquez is 22, had a great season at Salem in 2011 (18 HR, 84 RBI), so not rushing him to the majors is probably the safest bet.
That leaves us with the enigmatic Ryan Lavarnway. In 2011, Lavarnway looked like he was ready to clobber the fuck out of the ball at the MLB level. In 2012, he came to Boston and hit under .200. So, which Lavarnway came to play in 2013? Here are his numbers at Pawtucket:
.311 AVG / .413 OBP, 2 HR, 15 RBI, K per 7.66 PA
You know, I think Lavarnway might finally be ready. But what about his defense?
SB: 8 CS: 6
Percent of runners caught stealing: 43%
Passed balls: 8
Errors: 0
Lavarnway and Salty have each had 14 baserunners attempt steals off them, and the percent of runners Lavarnway has caught, when compared to Salty's measly 7%, just speaks for itself. As for his 8 passed balls, that seems alarming until you remember that Pawtucket has knuckleballer Steven Wright in their starting rotation -- most of those past balls are probably knuckleballs that Lavarnway wouldn't have thrown to him unless Wright is optioned upto Boston. Even then, his passed ball numbers when accounting for a knuckleball pitcher seem decent.
Bottom line here is, while Lavarnway's defense isn't as good as Vazquez's, there's no doubt that he would be a vast improvement over what Salty offers us. And Lavarnway will probably be just as good of a hitter as Salty -- probably a better hitter, if comparing Lavarnway's K:PA ratio to Salty's horrible propensity to whiff means anything.
The time has come for the Red Sox to part ways with Jarrod Saltalamacchia - a failed prospect. Offer him an assignment in Pawtucket if you want to keep him around for "depth", but Lavarnway is ready to play and Salty, well, just can't bring it.
Wednesday, May 8, 2013
The Hitting Funk
Since going to Arlington to play against the Rangers, the Red Sox have faced some very good pitching. The only starter with an ERA over 4.00 that they faced was Vance Worley, who had a 7+ ERA before facing the Sox (he lowered it to 6.95). Sox hitters only managed to get 3 ER off Worley in 5 IP.
But the other starters the Sox have faced have been more daunting: Darvish (2.56), Holland (2.74), Ogando (3.08). Even Scott Diamond, the common card we saw pitch last night, came into yesterday's start with a somewhat high 3.97 ERA but got that down to 3.03.
And what exactly have Sox hitters looked like after they arrived in Arlington? Let's take a look at the stats:
Ellsbury: .304 OBP, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0 R
Victorino: .294 OBP, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 R
I'll go with average for the rest of the hitters, but the primary job of the 1-2 hitters it getting on base -- which they haven't been doing. That partially explains why Ells hasn't scored a run, and Victorino's run scored was off his home run. For the few times they have gotten on base, though, the meat of the order hasn't been able to drive them home:
Pedroia: .210 AVG, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 2 R
Ortiz: .263 AVG, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 2 R
Napoli: .111 AVG, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 1 R
I'm not sure how much longer the Pedroia hitting third experiment can last for if he's not going to provide enough power at such an important position in the order -- but I'm not sure where else Pedroia could be placed in the batting order, either. Ortiz would be the obvious choice to hit third. And then there's Napoli... That batting average really just says it all right there. Pitchers hit better than that.
Looking at the rest of the main players, the only bright spot is Drew -- the only position player over the past 5 games who's managed to have a big day.
Middlebrooks: .142 AVG, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0 R
Nava: .181 AVG, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 1 R
Salty: .285 AVG, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 2 R
Drew: .400 AVG, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 1 R
Salty is hitting more than usual, too. But the only run he's responsible for, last night's home run, is negated by an errant throw to Napoli at first that, after hitting the dirt and nearly going into the outfield before Pedroia blocked it, allowed a runner on third to score. Salty, showing immaturity, then almost got himself ejected when he bitched to the umpire about the baserunner going to first -- sorry buddy, the baserunner didn't fucking throw the ball into the dirt. You did.
I've detailed Napoli's problems hitting against good pitching (indeed, his issues are way more pronounced), but the rest of the offense is struggling, too. Drew's spectacular night at the plate came during the game that Worley and his 7+ ERA pitching, so over the past few games there's hardly an example of a Sox hitter stepping up against a good pitcher. Closest example I can think of is Ortiz homering off Darvish, but Darvish made him (and all other Sox hitters) look silly for the rest of the game.
Great teams hit don't let playoff-caliber pitching keep them down. If the 2013 Red Sox want to think about making the playoffs, they need to start winning against good pitchers -- at the very least, start trying to work the count against these pitchers. No more 3 pitch at-bats. The Sox can't have a series against Toronto every week to pad the winning percentage -- the schedule is just going to get tougher from here on out.
But the other starters the Sox have faced have been more daunting: Darvish (2.56), Holland (2.74), Ogando (3.08). Even Scott Diamond, the common card we saw pitch last night, came into yesterday's start with a somewhat high 3.97 ERA but got that down to 3.03.
And what exactly have Sox hitters looked like after they arrived in Arlington? Let's take a look at the stats:
Ellsbury: .304 OBP, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0 R
Victorino: .294 OBP, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 R
I'll go with average for the rest of the hitters, but the primary job of the 1-2 hitters it getting on base -- which they haven't been doing. That partially explains why Ells hasn't scored a run, and Victorino's run scored was off his home run. For the few times they have gotten on base, though, the meat of the order hasn't been able to drive them home:
Pedroia: .210 AVG, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 2 R
Ortiz: .263 AVG, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 2 R
Napoli: .111 AVG, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 1 R
I'm not sure how much longer the Pedroia hitting third experiment can last for if he's not going to provide enough power at such an important position in the order -- but I'm not sure where else Pedroia could be placed in the batting order, either. Ortiz would be the obvious choice to hit third. And then there's Napoli... That batting average really just says it all right there. Pitchers hit better than that.
Looking at the rest of the main players, the only bright spot is Drew -- the only position player over the past 5 games who's managed to have a big day.
Middlebrooks: .142 AVG, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0 R
Nava: .181 AVG, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 1 R
Salty: .285 AVG, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 2 R
Drew: .400 AVG, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 1 R
Salty is hitting more than usual, too. But the only run he's responsible for, last night's home run, is negated by an errant throw to Napoli at first that, after hitting the dirt and nearly going into the outfield before Pedroia blocked it, allowed a runner on third to score. Salty, showing immaturity, then almost got himself ejected when he bitched to the umpire about the baserunner going to first -- sorry buddy, the baserunner didn't fucking throw the ball into the dirt. You did.
I've detailed Napoli's problems hitting against good pitching (indeed, his issues are way more pronounced), but the rest of the offense is struggling, too. Drew's spectacular night at the plate came during the game that Worley and his 7+ ERA pitching, so over the past few games there's hardly an example of a Sox hitter stepping up against a good pitcher. Closest example I can think of is Ortiz homering off Darvish, but Darvish made him (and all other Sox hitters) look silly for the rest of the game.
Great teams hit don't let playoff-caliber pitching keep them down. If the 2013 Red Sox want to think about making the playoffs, they need to start winning against good pitchers -- at the very least, start trying to work the count against these pitchers. No more 3 pitch at-bats. The Sox can't have a series against Toronto every week to pad the winning percentage -- the schedule is just going to get tougher from here on out.
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