Pre-Playoffs Notes

In 2012, myself and everyone else on the planet predicted that the Blue Jays would win the AL East.  And I've been critical of a few players all season.

Heading into October: Red Sox are in first place, Blue Jays sucked, and despite some challenging times throughout the course of the year, players like Napoli and Salty have put in a decent season.

So, amends must be made.  People like myself must be punished.  Going forward, this means I won't be ranting about Napoli or Salty that much -- a fair punishment, because this takes away half of my writing topics.  I won't even point out Salty's question defense... He has been catching more baserunners lately, though I'm not sure how much responsibility he bares for the wild pitch that placed the eventual winning run on third last night.  I watched the pitch from the Bud Deck and can't find a video highlight.  I know it was scored as a wild pitch, but I didn't have the greatest view and wanted to see the TV shot.

Regardless, I'm punished so I can only comment on how I can't comment on that.  Like 2004, this 2013 roster has a lot of players turning in unexpected career years (Koji, Carp, Nava, the emergence of Iglesias; and hell, Gomes almost counts since he's had only two better seasons).  In spring training, nobody was thinking "Carp is gonna kill it!" when he finally won a roster spot over Lyle Overbay.  And nobody thought "Koji is going to turn in one of the best seasons a closer has ever pitched!" with Bailey and Hanrahan starting the season in the bullpen. These performances are largely based on luck more than anything else; and I wouldn't expect to see them repeated.

But there's nothing like getting lucky in October.  Let's hope their streaks continue.

Patience, grasshoppers

I've had a lot of criticism regarding the Red Sox this season.  With the team playing white hot baseball right now, I've been reluctant to write about it because, honestly, I don't want to jinx it. 

After getting rest (and slumping) in August, Mike Napoli has been one of the key players for the Red Sox this month.  His strikeouts are down -- way down -- and he has 21 homers with 87 RBIs.  He's stayed healthy and vested all contract options, earning him the full amount of his one year deal.  His fielding at first base has been above average as well; though I wouldn't claim it's worthy of a gold glove. (Only reason why I bring that up is because some ESPN analysts are saying Napoli deserves a gold glove.)

Guess that means I have a heaping helping of crow to fuck my face with, right?

Maybe.  There are some troubling statistics to look at, though, before considering whether Ben should give Napoli a multi-year deal. 

First stat: How many stadiums has Napoli homered in?  Six -- Fenway, Yankee Stadium, Rogers Centre, Dodger Stadium, Angels Stadium, and SafeCo Field. 

Second: Of those stadiums, Napoli has hit 9 homers a Fenway, 5 at Rogers Centre, and 4 at Yankee Stadium -- that's 18 of his 21 HR reserve to just 3 ballparks. 

Third: Overall, Napoli has hit 6 homers against both Toronto and the Yankees.  With 12 homers against two teams, Napoli has scattered his other 9 homers. 

Finally, fourth: The quality of pitching Napoli tees off against is still sub-standard.  This month, he's homered against a minor league call up (Evan Reed), another minor league call up (Brett Marshall), a bad journeyman with a 6.04 ERA (David Huff), and Boone Logan.  Logan is the only decent pitcher out of that bunch -- the Yankees also found out that his elbow is injured.  He's currently day-to-day and hasn't pitched in a game since Napoli homered off of him. 

So the fourth stat is filled with 4 bums.  Napoli has doubled off of David Price and Alex Cobb, great pitchers, but he's just not bringing it against great pitchers.  

Like I mentioned, Napoli is striking out less and having a great month of September.  I hope he's working his swing to the point where he'll damage great pitchers in the playoffs, but since his power numbers are greatly weighted to certain teams and bad pitchers, I'm feeling some trepidation.

We just have to wait and see. 

The Monster is Hungry

The main axiom we learned about the Red Sox front office deploying after the 2011 debacle is how they can no longer "Feed the Monster".  After the long term contracts given to John Lackey, Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford (along with shorter, less costly contract extensions given to Beckett, Lester and Buchholz), the team hadn't been to the playoffs since 2009.  So, the new wisdom dictates that long term contracts don't produce the desired results; and henceforth, free agents will not be signed to long term deals.  No more feeding the "monster" -- that is, us, the fan base, looking for reasons to be excited by this team.

But the monster is hungry.  And if the morsels that fall off John Henry's plate don't fill our tummies, we will seek sustenance elsewhere.

As ardent fans, I know we're stuck in a Red Sox bubble wherein we microfocus our attention on the team.  But outside of our bubble, there's an almost palpable lack of enthusiasm  for the Red Sox.  Attendance is down, and the Sox are averaging 34,530 fans per game.  That's good for tenth in total draw in MLB, and a cool 3,000 fans down per game from last year's average.  And the 2012 team sucked.   It may be hard for us to imagine, but fact is many Boston sports fans aren't showing a lot of interest in this year's team.

The interest levels certainly aren't at the levels where they were in 2011, when Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford received mega-deals.  After the 2007 World Series victory, the 2008 team was one game away from going to another World Series; and the 2009 team made it to the playoffs.  Interest waned in 2010 as Sox suffered from an insufferable amount of injuries, and the front office fed the monster to renew fan interest in 2011.

After the collapse, the experiment to win over fans with Bobby Valentine failed (and "failed" is putting it lightly). The sell out streak was obviously a joke, with the front office giving tickets away for free just to claim that games were "sold out".  I went to a couple September 2012 games, and Fenway was half empty.  Nobody cared.

Perhaps Boston sports fans are still feeling a hangover from the 2011 collapse and 2012 debacle, but when reviewing the reasons for lack of fan interest in a Red Sox team that has been in first place for the majority of the season, historians (those self-important sports historian types; you know, assholes like myself) may include the teams moves in the 2012 offseason.

Think about it for a second.  After absconding large contracts, what did the Red Sox do?  Besides signing another member of the Drew family (who started the season on the disabled list), a back of the rotation starter, and a Flyin' Hawaiian, the biggest move of the offseason was acquiring Mike Napoli.  This was supposed to be Ben Cherington's proletariat coup after jettisoning Adrian Gonzalez -- Ben nabbed a first baseman who could rake for a quarter of the cost of that God-loving primadonna whose power disappeared when he arrived at Fenway.

But the contract negotiations dragged on.  And on.  And on...  A couple months passed before Napoli's deal was finally reduced to a minuscule one year, $5 million with incentives because of a degenerative hip condition.  Texas must have known about this condition -- after all, they didn't even give Napoli a qualifying offer that would have placed the team in line to receive a draft pick from the Red Sox when they signed Napoli.  Texas just wanted to get rid of this supposed power threat; a situation that I found very odd.

Or very telling.  How has Ben's coup performed this season?  Well, strikeout.  Strikeout.  More strikeouts.  Men on base?  Strikeout.  Ortiz leading the league in intentional walks?  Shocker, and strikeout.  Another whiff.  More strikeouts.  And on, and on, and on... How do you think this looks to other Boston sports fans?  It's a fucking embarrassment.

But, since the Red Sox didn't want to sign free agents who would cost them draft picks, it's what we're stuck with.  This strategy of not giving up draft picks, and shying away from long term deals, backfired when the Sox didn't pursue Anibal Sanchez.  Instead, Dempster was signed -- another coup, the front office assured us -- and Dempster has sucked.  So the Red Sox just traded one of their top prospects to acquire Jake Peavy.  Not giving up draft picks can be considered wise, but when weighed against trading a top prospect to get another back of the rotation starter since the other lackluster starter acquired during the offseason can't get the job done, the plan falls apart.

And Boston sports fans have noticed this.  Those little monsters are hungry, and they're about to jump on the Patriots bandwagon.  Cherington, et al., only have themselves to blame for the lack of interest in the Red Sox right now.

Perhaps it's time to adopt some new organizational axioms.

Who's the winner in the Red Sox/White Sox deal?

The Detroit Tigers, of course.

Detroit receives Jose Iglesias, a young shortstop who is a wizard with the glove and has shown some promise with the bat at the Major League level -- a point of much polarizing debate for many fans in Boston.  But even if he bats .220 for the rest of the season, he improves the Tigers' team fielding (which, surprisingly, hasn't been that bad this year) by taking over for an average Jhonny Peralta; who is just going to get suspended anyway.

With Iglesias at short, he makes up for some range lost by having Miguel Cabrera play third base.  This will improve Detroit's starting pitchers, who were already doing a decent job of pitching around their defense to get outs and wins.  Max Scherzer leads the AL with 15 wins, and only one Detroit starter has an ERA above 4.00.

The Red Sox get Jake Peavy, but they have opened up third base to be manned by a revolving door of minor league players.  If Stephen Drew suffers another injury, then both shortstop and third base will share that revolving door of minor leaguers.  Bringing prospects up has worked well sometimes for the Red Sox this season -- see, errr, Jose Iglesias -- but the Red Sox have placed themselves in a position where they are depending upon undependable wildcards at third base for the rest of the season.  This trade has the potential to blow up in Ben's face.

Peavy hasn't been that great this season, either.  It could be argued that Brandon Workman would have done a better job starting games.  We'll assume, right now, this strengthens the pitching staff by getting an experienced starter and placing a promising prrospect in the bullpen.  We're going to have to wait and see, though.

As for Chicago, they get three prospects that nobody really cared about.

To summarize the Peavy/Iglesias trade: Detroit fortified their team, Red Sox may have improved their pitching but left themselves a ticking timebomb at third base.  If the Red Sox make it to the ALCS, Detroit will likely be waiting for them.  I'd hate to see Iggy playing well in such a situation.

Should Buchholz be a starting pitcher?

Nobody ever questions whether or not Buchholz should be a starting pitcher.  It's a given that he's a starter, just like it's a given that Will Middlebrooks was going to be the Red ox starting third baseman for 2013 ... Errr, wait, that didn't work out. 

Sometimes, the role a player is thrust into isn't the best fit. 

Where Buchholz is concerned, first we should define what a "starting pitcher" is.  Since there are five pitchers in the starting rotation, what you want out of a starter can vary.  If a pitcher is in the bottom end of the rotation, you expect them to log 170-190 innings pitched and keep the team in the game for 65-75% of their starts.  But if the starter is a top of the rotation ace, then you must depend on them to pitch over 200 innings and keep the team in over 90% of the games they start.

Given these definitions, we can reasonably claim that a start should be reliable enough to pitch at least 170 innings a season.  Clay Buchholz has had five seasons to accomplish this most modest of goals for a starting pitch, yet he's only pitched over 170 innings in a season twice.  This season is Buchholz's sixth chance to accomplish this goal, but I'm doubtful he will do it. 

Observing this objectively, without bias, one can only surmise that Buchholz has not been a dependable starter for the Red Sox. 

We could ask "Why?" and partake in endless amounts of speculation regarding Buchholz's failure to be a normal starting pitcher, nevermind the staff ace that we all know he has the talent to be, but I don't see a point to undertaking that exercise.  We have to focus on what is and is not, and Buchholz is not a reliable starter. 

I'm not sure what role Buchholz should have for the Red Sox, but it must be one where he's not forced to try and pitch 170-200+ innings.  Should he serve as a longman/spot starter out of the bullpen?  Possibly, since that's a common position for failed starting positions.  Personally, I'd love it if the Red Sox experimented with making him a closer; especially since this organization has had so much trouble finding a reliable closer after letting Papelbon walk.  

Some off your will scream at this suggestion, pointing to the fact that Buchholz doesn't have a loss this season and his ERA is under 2.00.  The potential for greatness is there -- and I agree.  We've all seen it this season, just like we all saw it in 2007.  But Buchholz is still on the disabled list; a spot he occupied in 2012, 2011, and 2010.  Fact is Buchholz has not been a successful starter at the Major League level.  The Sox have a few pitching prospects who will be ready for MLB level soon, so the time for the Sox to define what Buchholz's role is -- and whether he'll ever become a dependable starter -- is now. 

Defining Middlebrooks

What is Will Middlebrooks: a major league player or a prospect?  More importantly, why isn't anyone asking this question?

It is assumed that Middlebrooks is the first option, a big leaguer.  Discussion about Middlebrooks and his "recent" struggles are done under the terms that, somehow, Middlebrooks is a semi-veteran player who just needs to stay in lineup until, as I heard on NESN before one game, "his swing comes around".  This discussion is framed around the assumption that Middlebrooks is on the level of veterans like Pedroia or Big Papi, who have produced after periods of struggling at the plate.  

But, if Middlebrooks is actually a prospect, would that change the whole tenor of the discussion around his struggles at the plate?  Perhaps the framing of this discussion should be adjusted. 

To the statsmobile, Batman! 

Here are a couple monthly stat lines for Middlebrooks:

Month #1: .194 BA, .286 OBP, 6 H, 0 2B, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 8 K

Month #2: .194 BA, .223 OBP, 19 H, 4 2B, 6 HR, 12 RBI, 32 K

So, what months did I pull these stats from?  These are reflective of Middlebrooks' "recent" struggles, so both of these months have to be from 2013, right? 

Wrong -- Month #1 is Middlebrooks' stat line from August 2012, before he broke his wrist.  Looking at that stat line, nobody can say that Middlebrooks wasn't struggling then; and he's still struggling now.  Therefore, his struggles are hardly a recent occurrence.  Middlebrooks isn't mired in a slump that he can swing his way out of, something else is going on.  

Month #2, by the way, are Middlebrooks' numbers in April 2013.  If you want to bring his latest numbers into the mix, you'll find that he's batting .138 with a .194 OBP this month.  Since returning from the disabled list, Middlebrooks has managed to drop his batting average from .199 down to .192. 

If a prospect is called up to fill in for an injured player and he catches on fire for a couple months before teams adjust their scouting reports and learn how to pitch against him, is he now a major league player or still a prospect that needs development?  To me, this is a rhetorical question.  Middlebrooks does not have the major league experience under his belt to make the assumption that he'll get out of this slump like any other veteran; he just continues to sink.  

In some small market organizations, letting a prospect struggle at the major league level is part of the development process.  The Royals called up Alex Gordon and let him suck for a couple of seasons before he finally started producing.  The Red Sox, though, spend big money and they have never been apt to give a prospect development time in the starting lineup.  Those players are sent to Portland or Pawtucket and told to keep improving as a player and wait their turn. 

Why is Middlebrooks treated differently?  Why is he this golden boy born as a big leaguer? Why hasn't reality seeped into the conversation about his struggles-cum-development?  And to continue treating Middlebrooks like this when the other option to play third base is hitting over .400 with a 23 game streak of getting on base, and he only has one fielding error at third compared to Middlebrooks' 8 errors?  Honestly, I just don't get it. 

Napoli and the Mask of Overachieving

Guess what?  It's time for me to bitch about Mike Napoli again.  I know, I know.  I should get a life, right?  Or find something else to talk about?  Hell, maybe I should comment on how well the Red Sox are doing instead of always looking for something negative, right?

Perhaps.

One positive aspect of the Red Sox loss against the Rangers last night was that that the game was close, and it felt like the Sox might be able to pull off a come from behind victory at any time.  Lackey had a great start, as well, limiting the Rangers' playoff-caliber hitting to a run over six innings.

Jose Iglesais continues to place himself on the short list for Rookie of the Year candidates by getting a single in the 7th, extending his hitting streak to nine games while moving a baserunner to second.  The Sox didn't score, unfortunately, but one must wonder if Iglesais could help drive in runs if he was hitting second instead of ninth.  Either way, with Middlebrooks being told that his stay in Pawtucket will be extended until he shapes the fuck up, the front office seems ready to adopt the ethos of placing the best team on the field instead of using players that gross money from Pink Hat merchandise sales.  Now, if Salty could only be moved to place Lavarnway in the lineup...

The bad part is that you could see this loss coming from a mile away because Alexi Ogando was starting for the Rangers, and the Red Sox have a tough time winning against pitchers who have an ERA under 3.00.  Some of you might have questions when I point this out, such as: "What's the big fucking deal?  Doesn't every team have difficulty against good starters?  Isn't that baseball?  Don't you realize that the Red Sox have the most runs scored in the Majors right now?  What the fuck is wrong with you?"

I could sit back and enjoy seeing the 2013 Red Sox run up 17-5 victories against shitty pitching while shrugging off close losses to spectacular pitching, but witnessing the latter reveals more than the former because it shows deficiencies with this team that will become more pronounced as their schedule becomes more difficult in August and September, with plenty of games against the Yankees, Rays and Baltimore; along with a series against teams with great starters like the Tigers, Diamondbacks and Dodgers.  If the Red Sox make it to the playoffs after all of that, most of the pitching they will face will make last night's starter, Alexi Ogando, look pedestrian.

What would bring the overachieving Red Sox hitting over the hump is another hitter in the meat of their order that can produce against great pitchers.  And that brings me back to Mike Napoli because, so far, Mike Napoli hasn't been that hitter.

How many home runs has Napoli hit off of pitchers who have an ERA under 3.00?  None.

How many homers has Napoli hit off pitchers with an ERA under 4.00?  Three, and two were against relievers.  The only questionably "tough" starter that Napoli has teed off against is Jeremy Guthrie.

Conversely, how many homers has Napoli hit against pitchers with an ERA above 5.00?  Four.

As I've mentioned before (and repeatedly) in tweets, 5 of Napoli's 9 homers have come against the Blue Jays.

The Red Sox don't have this problem with David Ortiz -- he has made a career off of hammering great pitching.  This year, we've already seen Big Papi rake against Yu Darvish, Matt Moore and Hiroki Kuroda.

Napoli has gotten some RBIs off fielder's choice balls and sacrifice flies against decent pitchers, so at least he can put the ball in play when runners are on base to make something happen.  And, as evidenced by his stats, Napoli has a big stick against bad pitching.

The question regarding Napoli, with a third of the season over, is whether he'll be able to step it up and rake against great pitching or is he just an overachiever?  The answer to this question may be the deciding factor in whether the Red Sox lineup can survive the final third of the season or regress to a .500 ballclub that doesn't make the playoffs.