Big Papi: Big Legend

The best Red Sox hitters ever: Ted Williams, Carl Yaztrzemski, and David Ortiz.

Does that sound odd to you? Because it makes sense to me. It's a shame that, whenever we discuss David Ortiz, conversation centers around one question: "When is he going to get old?" Instead of dwelling over his age, we should be reveling in witnessing the greatness of David Ortiz every time he steps to the plate.

Before getting into where Ortiz ranks all time among Red Sox hitters to show his greatness, let's compare Ortiz's recent performances to what we saw of him earlier in his career to see how he's extended his career as a potent force at the plate - essentially, what Ortiz has done to keep himself great.

Baseball is a game of adjustments; David Ortiz knows this, and he's adjusted his approach at the plate as he's aged. Ortiz has been so successful that one might say he doesn't age - he merely adjusts. Perhaps, judging from the pessimism regarding conversations about Ortiz, it shouldn't be surprising that fans haven't gotten used to Ortiz's adjustments. To our credit, pitchers certainly haven't gotten used to Ortiz's adjustments either.

To get an broad view of how Ortiz has adjusted, let's look at a Ortiz's stats from 2003 - 2010 and 2011 - 2013.

	BA	OBP	OPS	Avg HR
2003-10	.286	.386	.958	36
2011-13	.311	.401	.972	27

We can see a couple things going on here: Ortiz's power has decreased with age, but his abilities to make contact with the ball and get on base have increased. It's worth noting that Ortiz's power decrease runs concurrent with a decline in home runs throughout baseball. In 2004, 5,451 home runs were hit; but we saw only 4,934 home runs in 2012. So maybe Ortiz's power decrease isn't age related. Ironically, this home run decline in all of baseball has made Ortiz more valuable since players who can hit 25-35 HR are no longer a dime a dozen.

How has Ortiz beaten age to remain one one baseball's elite hitter? He's added three elements to his game: hitting to all fields, better clutch hitting, and a newfound ability to get hits off left handed pitchers. These adjustments can be observed in some of Ortiz's stat splits from 2008 - 2013.

First, here's Ortiz's ability to hit to all fields display in his batting average for balls hit up the middle and to the opposite field:

	Up the Middle	Opposite Field
2008	.299	.268
2009	.301	.356
2010	.398	.355
2011	.369	.405
2012	.390	.438
2013	.384	.379

Ortiz had a .438 batting average on balls he hit to the opposite field in 2012 - are you fucking kidding me? This is the same hitter that world-renowned fucking super genius putzbag Joe Maddon still puts a fielding shift on? The same hitter that everyone thinks can only pull the ball and hit homers or ground outs? Think again. Younger David Ortiz was more of a one-dimensional power hitter, but he's adjusted to become the better all-around hitter we've seen for the past few seasons.

And Ortiz has been able to get more clutch hits. Here are splits for his batting average with runners on second and third, and with the bases loaded.

	Second & Third	Bases Loaded
2008	.100	.400
2009	.083	.353
2010	.300	.267
2011	.263	.333
2012	.250	.500
2013	.455	.455

I can see Ortiz having a high batting average with the bases loaded because pitchers can't pitch around him when first base isn't open, but hitting with runners on second and third must be a batter's toughest job - especially when you have power threat that Ortiz possess. Pitchers won't want to throw Ortiz anything close to the strike zone, yet Ortiz has figured out ways to get hits in this situation. I triple-checked his .455 average in 2013 with runners on second and third - it's no joke. Ortiz was that good in the clutch.

Finally, Ortiz has accomplished this hitting against all pitchers. Look at these splits for his batting average against left handed pitching:

	vs. LHP
2008	.221
2009	.212
2010	.222
2011	.329
2012	.320
2013	.260

Judging from Ortiz's dip to .260 off LHP in 2013, perhaps pitchers have finally started adjusting to this new facet of his game. But .260 around 45 points better than the averages vs. LHP he put up in 2008 - 2010.

Through these adjustments, Ortiz has stayed ahead of his age. This is a player who should be in the twilight of his career and should be regressing, not progressing. And by prolonging his career, Ortiz is climbing the ranks of the Red Sox record book:

• For On-Base Percentage, of all Red Sox hitters with over 5000 ABs and 1500 games, Ortiz is third all-time with .390; behind Ted Williams (.482, best all time in MLB) and Wade Boggs (.428). 
• For On-Base Plus Slugging, of all Red Sox hitters with over 1500 games, Ortiz is second (.962) behind Williams (1.116). 
• For Home Runs, Ortiz is currently fifth with 373 in a Red Sox uniform. Jim Rice is third with 382, and Dwight Evans is fourth at 379 - so Ortiz will likely by in third by the middle of May. 
• For RBIs, Ortiz is sixth with 1191 - but he has played only 1514 games as a member of the Red Sox. Everyone ahead of Ortiz has played over 1800 games for the team. 

Those are the numbers that Ortiz has put up just with the Red Sox. For his career, Ortiz has 431 home runs and 1429 RBIs, with a .287 BA and .381 OBP. If Ortiz gets up to 1600-1700 RBIs, he's in Cal Ripken, Frank Thomas and Ernie Banks territory. And if he has those RBIs while becoming a member of the 500 HR Club, then how can he not get into Cooperstown?

How feasible is it for David Ortiz to attain 500+ HR and 1600+ RBIs before the end of his career? Pretty damn feasible. Consider this: Jason Giambi was 43 in 2013 and he still found a job in baseball. Giambi was once a left handed power threat, but he hasn't had a season with over 450 AB since 2008.
If Giambi can find a job as a pinch hitter at 43, then David Ortiz will have playing options available to him over the next few seasons if he doesn't choose to retire. So he will reach 500+ HR and 1600+ RBI.

If the Minnesota Twins knew how special David Ortiz was before they released him, we could only imagine what kind of stats he would have amassed by now...

All of these doesn't even take Ortiz's postseason performances into account. But I think we all remember those extra inning game winning hits in games 4 and 5 of the 2004 ALCS, as well as his career .455 BA and .576 OBP in the World Series. Ortiz has 14 World Series RBIs too, averaging 1 RBI per World Series game he's played in.

Not only has Ortiz been great, but we're still witnessing his greatness. I could have lead off this post with with Ortiz stands all time among Red Sox hitters, but then people would say "Yeah, that's great, but he's getting old." By detailing how Ortiz has adjusted along with where he ranks all time among Red Sox hitters, I hope we can understand that he doesn't just have a few years of baseball left in him, but he will be talked about for generations after he retires.

David Ortiz is a once in a lifetime hitter for Boston. Decades from now, when you're pushing 80 or 90 and have great-grandchildren, if you're lucky enough to take them to Fenway (and of course Fenway will still be there), you will tell them, "I saw David Ortiz play here." Why? Because they will ask, just like we grew up asking about Ted Williams. David Ortiz is that kind of hitter. His legend will live on after he's gone, and we should really appreciate every time he steps to the plate. So consider that, and the adjustments he's made, the next time you wonder if giving Ortiz another contract is worth it.

Ryan Dempster v. Derek Dumpster

I've never been a fan of Ryan Dempster and I haven't been shy about expressing this. Before Ben signed Dempster, he looked like a veteran starter whose talents were fading quickly - and Dempster didn't do anything in 2013 to change my opinion of how he plays. But Dempster did change my opinion of him as a player today when he announced that he doesn't feel like he's capable of pitching in 2014.

Contrast Dempster's announcement today with the eight month long circus/circle jerk Derek Jeter is about to bring to baseball. To Jeter, it's all about him: he wants a farewell tour, he wants the accolades, he wants all the praise, he wants the ego-stroking, and he knows he's going to get it. It doesn't matter that there are things Jeter could have done over the years to improve his team, like switching positions or, in this case, retiring immediately. Jeter is all about Jeter.

Ryan Dempster, however, is for his team. The 2014 Red Sox would have been worse with Dempster on the roster, perpetually in limbo between the bullpen and starting rotation because he's being paid like a starter but he's arguably the sixth best starter on the 40 man roster. Dempster knew that he wouldn't be able to perform well this season, and instead of taking $13.25 million in salary that he was guaranteed to, essentially, embarrass himself, he left millions on the table for the good of his team. I'll remember this action a lot more than a beanball to A-Roid.

This is how you leave baseball with respect and dignity. I wish somebody would tell this the Jeter, but he probably wouldn't hear it over the sound of him wanking to himself.

Kojiundrum

Time to play another round of GUESS THAT PLAYER. Both players are relief pitchers. Ready? Go!

	Games	IP	Saves	ERA	WHIP	K
Player 1	72	71.0	16	1.39	0.958	70
Player 2	73	74.1	21	1.09	0.565	101

Judging by their WHIPs and Ks, Player 2 was superior - but Player 1 certainly wasn't a slacker. His 1.39 ERA isn't a result of dumb luck, there was so talent in his arm. So, who are these relievers? No googling. Give it your best guess.

Ready for the reveal? Good, because you might be shocked: Player 1 is Mark Melancon - yes, that Mark Melancon. The same Melancon who pitched for the Red Sox in early 2012, imploded and was sent to Pawtucket for the majority of that season.

And Player 2? That's Koji Uehara. I'm sure you've heard of him.

I don't mean to impair a negative view on Koji's 2013 campaign by comparing his stat line with Melancon's, but it should be noted that, historically, relievers are tricky beasts. For a recent example, just look at the Baltimore Orioles' bullpen.

In 2012, Baltimore rode the performances of their relievers right into the playoffs (an especially pertinent point since their starting rotation sucked). But in 2013, Orioles closer Jim Johnson blew a ton of saves; and their setup man, Pedro Strop, pitched so badly that his 7.25 ERA was eventually traded to the Cubs. Consequently, the Orioles were a non-factor in the 2013 playoff race.

That's one example of how the performance of relief pitchers can vary drastically from one season to another. How Mark Melancon pitched in 2012 and 2013 is another example.

So, how will Koji pitch in 2013? He probably won't duplicate his spectacular efforts in 2013 (that's not a knock on Koji - I doubt that many pitchers outside of He-Who-Retire-And-Shall-Not-Be-Named from the Bronx could duplicate his 2013 performance), but he stands a good chance of coming close.

However, it wouldn't be a bad idea to have a closer in waiting in the bullpen, just in case Koji falters. Let's not forget that Koji was the insurance policy for Andrew Bailey and Joel Hanrahan. No matter what you think about Koji, having an insurance policy against him wouldn't hurt.

American League Story Lines to Watch in 2014

Boston Red Sox: Can they repeat? 

The cornerstones of the 2013 Red Sox were clubhouse chemistry and an improved medical staff. This allowed players to stay on the field and instilled in them the attitude of picking each other up. Perhaps the most amazing feat by the 2013 Red Sox was stopping losing streaks at three games - this team never went downhill and never gave up. The roster depth Ben loaded the 2013 team with is still here, as demonstrated by the Sox signing of Grady Sizemore to compete with Jackie Bradley Jr. and the argument over who should play shortstop and third base. If the Red Sox can stay healthy, there's no reason to think they won't win the AL East again and the matter of repeating a World Series championship may come down to the health of their opponents. 

Detroit Tigers: Can Miggy stay healthy? 

The Tigers are the Red Sox primary opponent for the American League pennant, and despite the power of their pitching, everything for the Tigers revolves around Miguel Cabrera. By the end of 2013, Cabrera wasn't healthy and he wasn't able to be the best hitter in the game. To illustrate how important it is for the Tigers to have a healthy Cabrera, consider this: 3 of the Red Sox 4 victories in the 2013 ALCS were 1 run games. If Cabrera was healthy, he could have turned around those games and the Red Sox lose. It's as simple as that. By trading Prince Fielder for a Ian Kinsler, a veteran with a steady bat to play second base, the Tigers didn't just unload Fielder's costly contract - they allowed Cabrera to move from third base to first base, and placing Cabrera at a less physically demanding fielding position will help him stay healthy throughout the season. This should allow Cabrera to be the best hitter in baseball going into the postseason, instead of the shadow of himself we all saw in September and October last season.

New York Yankees: Who is their slugger? 

With the departure of Robinson Cano, the Yankees may not have a legitimate middle of the order slugger - the kind of hitter that pitchers fear, which prompts them to throw more strikes to top of the order hitters to try prevent them from reaching base. If Teixeria, McCann and Beltran can't be feared sluggers, how will this effect Ellsbury and a 40 year old Jeter? Pitchers won't be afraid to pitch around Ellsbury if they think the batters ahead of him aren't a threat. Without having a legitimate slugger, signing Ellsbury is akin to dumping gasoline over a pile of $152 million and lighting it ablaze. 

Besides that, what happens to CC Sabathia's velocity now that he's a toothpick? And do the Yankees have a closer? All of this makes the Tanaka deal look like an afterthought.   

Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays: The Choose Your Own Adventure Book of Self-Destrution

How will the Rays choose to self-destruct in 2014? That's the question, because in 2013 they chose to self-destruct during spring training by not making Wil Myers an opening day starter. Why? Because if they kept Myers in the minors long enough during the 2013 season, they got an extra year of contract control over the player. Think about the damage caused by that decision: the Rays were only 5.5 GB back of the Red Sox. If Myers was a starter throughout 2013, could he have gotten him over that 5.5 GB hump? And if Myers had a full 9 games of experience playing right field at Fenway under his belt, would he have let that fly ball drop right in front of him during the ALDS? 

In retrospect, the Devil Rays' penny-pinching ways bit them in the ass. So how will the Rays figure out a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in 2014? If David Price is having a good season before the trade deadline, I bet the idea of trading him for prospects, rather than pay him $16-17 mil in 2015, will be too much for the Rays to resist. The Rays won't win because they would rather blow up their team to save a buck than win a World Series. Everyone will still claim that Joe Maddon is a genius because, hey, cult it. Ack, fuck it. That's what I meant to say. 

Oakland A's: I've got nothing

Every year, I look at the A's roster and think "How the fuck will this fucking team win fucking anything?" Then, like clockwork, Billy Beane's rejects from the Island of Misfits somehow win the AL West and put themselves in the playoffs. I feel like this cycle will repeat itself in 2014 simply, and inexplicably, because of inertia. The A's let Bartolo Colon walk and think they can replace him with Scott Kazmir, whose last good season was in 2008? OK, whatever. This is one of those moves that always seems to work out for Billy Beane and nobody knows why, so we'll see. 

Texas Rangers: I've got everything

The yang to the A's yin, the Rangers spend every offseason seemingly making the right moves only to spectacularly failure when September rolls around. They signed Adrian Beltre, they let Josh Hamilton walk, they signed Yu Darvish, annnnd... Fail. Will Prince Fielder and Shin-Soo Shoo finally vault them over the A's? We'll see.  

Anaheim Angels: Honorary Mention

I'm trying to keep this list to contenders, but because the Angels have Mike Trout playing out of his mind, and Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton playing well under their abilities, you have to include them as a dark horse candidate. If Trout, Pujols, Hamilton become a three-headed pitcher wrecking machine; and if Weaver and Wilson are pitching well, the Angels can position themselves as buyers at the trade deadline and stay in the playoff hunt. But these are huge if's. 

My Inevitable Post-2013 Napoli Post

It would be easy to look at Napoli's 2013 stats and say, "Hey, look, I was sorta right." In fact, why not do that?

Napoli in 2013: .259 BA / .360 OBP, 23 HR, 92 RBI, 38 2B

The stats show that this is a decent season, but we're not talking Cooperstown stuff here. But the question is should that matter?

Of course, to a certain extent, stats do matter because they show an aptitude of a player to be able to have success at the highest level of baseball. Physical fitness and potential alone just do not cut it when a player is at the MLB level - they have to have discipline at the plate to even produce a .240 batting average. If you need an example of raw physical talent not panning out, look no further than Wily Mo Pena.

Wily Mo, by the way, might have been the strongest person to ever play at the highest level of baseball. When he connected, the home runs he hit were majestic. He had an amazing amount of physical talent. Hell, 19% of Wily Mo's hits were home runs... 24% of Babe Ruth's hits were home runs; 22% of Mickey Mantle's hits were home runs. So Wily Mo is in pretty good company there. But the only thing Wily Mo could hit was a fastball. His approach to at bats sucked, and he never adjusted to Major League pitching in a way that enabled him to amass all of his talents to become a prolific slugger.

Strength and intelligence are important at the plate. Players like Wily Mo didn't have it, but Mike Napoli did.

Napoli provides a case where myself and the Sabermetric statheads both didn't get it right; and, in retrospect, I'm happy the Red Sox signed him for 2013. I'm also happy to see Napoli take a hometown discount to stay in Boston.

Around this time last year, the Sabr predictions for Napoli were ridiculous: a .280 AVG / 30+ HR season, yadda yadda. I didn't believe it, and one reason why is because I doubted Napoli could be a full time player without getting injured. I was wrong, and the Sabermetricians were wrong - Napoli played full time, but he didn't amass the stats many thought he would.

Instead, he hit 23 HR - mostly off bad pitchers - with a .259 batting average. But his OBP of .360 shows that pitchers feared him, and that's telling.

I'm not going to look up Napoli's playoff stats, because the playoffs shouldn't be about stats. In fact, I'm sure Napoli's playoff stats were worse than his regular season stats - but the playoffs are about memories. And I remember Napoli hitting a fucking moonshot off Verlander in Detroit during the ALCS. This was the moment where, for me, Napoli transcended stats.

Napoli might not be as strong as physical freaks like Wily Mo Pena, but the dude is built. And everyone in MLB knows that when Napoli connects, he can hit the ball the fucking mile. That's why you see a 100 point disparity between Napoli's batting average and his OBP - pitchers fear this man. Pitchers also knew that Napoli strikes out a ton, but when he connects... Forget it. That ball is long gone.

Baseball has a lot of players who can hit .259. Most of them are middle infielders with good gloves and Punching Judy swings - they'll hit singles and that's about it. Napoli is different. Napoli isn't the best contact hitter in the world, and his the rate he's able to strikeout at can be annoying. But what I learned from watching Napoli last season is that nothing can beat raw power when it's wielded with discipline.

Napoli won't be the best hitter in the league, but there are games when he slams a pitch into never-never land and you have to admit that he was the best player that night. Napoli always has the potential to become that, and most of the time he won't... But this talent to be the best player for even a night doesn't exist with most ballplayers. Napoli is special and has this talent - and pitchers fear becoming a victim to those few times that Napoli could eat them alive.

I didn't see this talent in Napoli during the offseason last year. To my credit, I don't think anyone did. On one side you had the Sabermetricians pulling fantasy stats out of their ass, and on the other side you had people like myself saying those stats were bullshit. Both sides missed the point. Napoli showed us what the point was in 2013, and I think all of us are happier for this.

The Lying Heart of WAR

David Pinto, over at his blog Baseball Musings, sort of inadvertently makes a very accurate observation regarding how infielders with high career WAR fair in MVP vote shares:

The most interesting thing about the lists is that they show a systematic bias. The underrated players tend to be skill infielders (2b, 3b, ss), and outfielders who did not hit a ton of home runs. Power hitting first basemen and outfielders dominate the overrated lists, although some catchers appear there as well. Over time, MVP voters overrated power and catching defense, while underrated OBP and infield defense.

More generally: WAR reflects more favorably upon any infielder that doesn't play first base, but those players generally don't make out well in MVP voting. Thus illustrating the heart of the Sabermetrics v. Old School Stats conflict.

One of David's commenters to this post, pft, digs deeper into how unfair WAR judges MLB players:

WAR basically gives middle IF’ers and CF’ers a huge handicap and introduces a bias against those playing lesser positions.

I am pretty sure there are many great defensive players in the minors who never make it to MLB, but great offensive players are so rare teams find room for them, even if they can’t field their position very well. Yet offensive talent in general is treated as a commodity in equal supply as defensive talent.

Also, there are likely a great many skilled LH players who simply were unable to play any IF position but 1B and they are docked -10 runs per every 600 PA (or 1 Win)...

I just think more weight should be given to how a fielder played his position than the position itself which in some cases is determined not by skill but by other factors such as team needs, or handedness.

This is one of the best retorts against WAR that I've read, and kudos to pft for not lacing it with profanities. Something I've been, uh, apt to do when discussing WAR.

pft brings organizational needs into account - an important point. Some prospects who are viewed as spectacularly talented hitters will be removed from more demanding fielding positions so they can focus on their hitting. Best example I can think of for this is Bryce Harper, who was a catcher in high school and junior college. After the Nationals drafted Harper, they didn't want to risk injuring his knees by having him behind the plate so they converted him into an outfielder. According to WAR, this defensive conversion makes Harper less valuable because a power hitting catcher is supposedly more valuable than a power hitting outfielder - but according to the Nationals, Harper's value lies in getting as many productive years as they can out of his bat.

So is it fair for WAR to penalize Harper? No, of course not. This is one reason why WAR isn't a stat. WAR is a judgement - and, in my view, it's a poor judgement.

There are other examples of organizations placing prospects in less demanding fielding positions to maximize their hitting... Dave Winfield and Mark McGwire were pitchers in college. They didn't pitch in MLB. The reasons for that are self-evident.

And the reasons for organizations doing what they can to maximize the offensive potential of talented power hitters should be self-evident: sluggers improve players hitting ahead of them. For example, let's look at the effect Frank Thomas had on White Sox hitters.

In 1995, Frank Thomas batted third for the White Sox and hit .308/.454 OBP, with 40 HR and 111 RBI. This guy was a force of fucking nature. The White Sox leadoff hitter in 1995 was Lance Johnson. Up until 1995, Johnson was a career .281/.321 OBP hitter - but he hit .306/.341 OBP in 1995. It can be argued that hitting in front of Frank Thomas improved Johnson's stats.

Other examples can be found - Thomas had another 40 HR campaign in 1996. Tony Phillips hit ahead of him, and the 37 year old career .266/.374 OBP hitter went .277/.404 OBP in 1996. Dave Martinez also batted ahead of Thomas in 1996. Martinez was a career .269/.329 OBP hitter before 1996, but he hit .318/.393 OBP in 1996.

Sabermetricians like to scoff at RBIs as being a useless stat, since sluggers need men on base to drive them home. What isn't mentioned in this argument is that elite sluggers make the hitters in front of them better. If you pay attention to just only WAR, then you could insert David Eckstein into the third spot on the lineup and expect him to amass the 134 RBIs that Frank Thomas raked in 1996 because the same hitters would be in front of him. But Eckstein wouldn't make those hitters better. Pitchers aren't afraid of batters like Eckstein, so they'll feel free to pitch around hitters in front of him.

But pitchers feared Frank Thomas - dude was a physical fucking freak. He was an NFL linebacker standing at the plate, just wanting to crush fucking balls over the goddamn fence. Pitchers shit themselves when he came to the plate. So, just in case Thomas unloaded on them, pitchers needed to attack hitters in front of him to try and get them out so they didn't become runs. This means those hitters would see more strikes to hit, and if they are capable Major Leaguers, they took advantage of that.

Elite sluggers like Frank Thomas didn't benefit from having good hitters batting before him to drive in - they created great hitters in the lineup and then drove them in. That's why Frank Thomas put up multiple 100+ RBI seasons. And yes, the White Sox put him at 1B/DH: to maximize his value as a slugger by improving the hitters batting ahead of him.

I like to call this basic baseball strategy. This strategy should be incorporated into MVP voting, because if a slugger an organization chose to put at first base makes hitters in front of him better, doesn't that make him quite a valuable player?

But WAR doesn't recognize baseball strategy. That's why WAR doesn't have a lyin', cheatin' ole heart - WAR doesn't have a heart, period. The primary flaw of WAR lies in it judging all players as equal without noticing the role they have on the team; whereas baseball is played through roles. You have leadoff hitters, cleanup hitters, sluggers, and catchers who can provide pop in the seven hole of the lineup. These roles lie at the heart of baseball, and as a fan, I can't fathom some cold, supposedly all-encompassing "statistic" which refuses to take the heart of baseball into account.

On Baseball Gods and Metaphors

The biggest fallacy of the Hall of Fame vote is trying to apply one argument to all players, which is what the steroids question has become. Doing this ignores how baseball has intertwined with US history when the moment is right, a tradition that should continue - and it would continue if the current class of journalists could just connect the dots.

The "blanket argument" is the steroids debate: should a player who used/is suspected of using steroids be allowed into Cooperstown? What isn't taken into account with this argument is the motives of the individual players, though - and motive makes a difference. Let's say, just for sake of the argument, that Jeff Bagwell took steroids for a couple of seasons. Whether Bagwell used can never be proven (and I don't believe he did), but some baseball writers believe he cheated during his career year. Fine. The next question to be asked should be "What was his motivation for cheating?" Only when you ask this question can players be judged on an individual basis.

If Bagwell cheated, he may have wanted to boost his numbers for a couple of seasons. Maybe he wanted a larger contract. This motive is common, and universally shared by all baseball players. Bagwell didn't want to become a baseball deity.

Let's pose the same question of motive to Barry Bonds... And now we see how two supposed cheaters look completely different. Barry Bonds had a God complex, something he wasn't shy about expressing. Bonds put Babe Ruth is his sight lines and set out to destroy his legacy. Bonds doesn't want you to talk about Babe Ruth without expressing first reverence to Bonds' career. That was Barry Bonds' motivation to cheat.

Whether a Hall of Fame voter sees a moral difference in the motivation of players like Bonds and Bagwell is up to them, but players should be judged upon their individual motivation and not a blanket judgement.

If I were a Hall of Fame voter, I'd bring US history into the equation when judging the motivation of a player to cheat. This is where Barry Bonds wanting to become a baseball deity should be seen as highly insulting, and his behavior should be used against him when considering his case for Cooperstown.

Anyone can tell you that Bonds deserves to be in Cooperstown because he was good enough before he cheated. When Bonds was young, he hit for average and power; and he had speed. He was a run producing machine, and if he just aged without wanted to become the great home run hitter ever, he would be remembered as a player with a really good eye at the plate and stats worthy enough to get him into Cooperstown. Bonds wouldn't have been Willie Mays or Mickey Mantle, but he would have a place below them.

This wasn't good enough for Barry Bonds. He wanted to be the greatest player ever. Period, end of story. And he wanted to be the greatest during an unfortunate chapter of American history.

When Babe Ruth became the greatest player in baseball history, America was riding a wave of prosperity. We came out on the winning side of the largest war in history, we weren't mired in trying to keep a crumbling empire together (see Britain, France); and we weren't castigated with punishments meant to cripple a nation (see Germany and the former Ottoman Empire). The stock market was up, Americans were earning higher incomes, our country's place in the world was rising, and Babe Ruth helped to symbolize all of this with his larger than life style of playing baseball. The feats of the United States and Babe Ruth went hand in hand, and Ruth became a metaphor for the Roaring 1920's.

Barry Bonds, on the other hand, tried to become a baseball deity by cheating during a time when banks were cheating the economy. Banks were signing up new homeowners despite knowing that these people didn't have enough income to pay the bills on these new mortgages, then packing these crappy mortgages into securities, giving them an AAA bond rating, and selling these securities to investors. It was false prosperity. And, like a steroid abusing baseball player who suffers from injuries later in his career because his muscles grew to a point where his body could no long support them, the mortgage backed securities collapsed - they almost bought the whole economy down with them.

It is merely a coincidence that Bonds cheated during this particular time in US history, so does he deserve to be punished for it? Yes, absolutely, 100% yes yes yes. Bonds tried to become Babe Ruth, so he asked to be compared to Babe Ruth. What Bonds doesn't understand, though, is that Babe Ruth is more than a baseball player - he's a historical metaphor. Thinking about "Babe Ruth" brings us back to America's glory years. And thinking about Barry Bonds brings us back to, well... It was only a few years ago, I think you remember.

Barry's surname is "Bonds," and those mortgage backed securities were, essentially, bonds. I mean, the metaphors should write themselves here.

Should a player who can become a metaphor for everything wrong with America be enshrined in the Hall of Fame? No, because that player is definitely no Babe Ruth.

The Ellsbury Paradox

Jacoby Ellsbury has gotten himself into a fucked up situation by going to the Yankees. By going for the big money, Ellsbury (who will now, and forever, be known as "Ell$") has placed himself in a position where there's a good chance he'll tarnish his entire career. Here are four reasons why:

1) When the Yankees give you a big contract, they expect results - not just individual results, but world championships. But the Yankees are a total shitshow right now. Mariano is gone, Pettitte is gone, Jeter will be gone soon, nobody knows what's happening to A-Roid, there's a huge hole at second base if they can't pony up $200+ million for Cano; Sabathia and Teixeria look like they're declining, and the rest of the team sucks. By signing Ell$ and McCann, the Yankees sacrificed their first two picks in the 2014 draft - so getting prospects to come to the rescue will be a challenge. And if the Yankees have $100+ - $200+ million commitments to Ells$, A-Roid and Cano, then spending money to build right now will also be difficult. 

In short: the Yankees are in quite a bind, and they have to feed a relentless fanbase. Blaming Ell$ for the Yankees' future failures is unfair, but NYC isn't known for being "fair." Ell$ willingly placed himself in this situation, so he'll have to reap it. 

2) Ell$'s game primarily consists of being a speedster on the basepaths. Right now, he's the best leadoff hitter in baseball - but he's 30. Speed declines with age, so even if he has injury free seasons from now until the end of his contract (assuming the Yankees exercise their 8th year option on him), he'll be 39 with his speed declining each year. Elite sluggers like David Ortiz are able to weather the effects of age and still play at a high level, but speedsters cannot do this. So Ell$ is already setup to fail. 

3) And Ell$ has an injury history. Avoiding injuries as he ages is something even the best of players have trouble doing. The first time Ell$ hits the disabled list, he is going to feel the hatred of the rabid Yankees fan base. 

4) By going for the money, Ell$ burned all of his good will in Boston. 

Considering the situation Ell$ has placed himself in - possibly audacious bad press, hated by fans, little possibility of earning another World Series ring - how will this look on Ell$'s resume for Cooperstown? 

That resume would have looked a lot better if Ell$ took a hometown discount to continue playing for the Red Sox. Ortiz took a hometown discount, made it to another World Series, and he not only earned another ring but he placed himself in the "Best Postseason Hitter Ever" argument. Pedroia took the hometown discount and got himself a second ring. Both players have earned the love of the Boston fan base, have (or, almost in Ortiz's case, has had) secure careers, and all of this will look favorably upon them five years after each of them retire and find themselves on the ballot for Cooperstown.

Ell$ went for the money, but I doubt he comprehends the magnitude of his decision. Two decades from now, if he's a middling HOF candidate with little chance of being enshrined, I hope Ell$ is still enjoying all $153 million the Yankees paid to buy off his potential immortality. 

Sabermetrician Douchebags (cc: @keithlaw)

It's awards time for baseball, that time of year when hardware is handed out to players and managers while Sabermetricians threaten to go on a five state killing spree if they don't get their way. I got tired of writing about this before the 2013 season and don't wish to start over again - hey, I need time to write a post about Mike Napoli where I eat some crow.

But I can't let this awards season pass without pointing out how pompous the Saber-douchebags are.

The BBWAA has failed its annual intelligence test. Again.

— keithlaw (@keithlaw) November 14, 2013

Keith Law's tweet encapsulates the attitude problem that Sabermetricians have: they're pompous, smug pricks. They won't listen to any voice outside of their echo chamber because they just assume they're the most intelligent people ever.

Blame can be applied to all parties for the pissing matches that happen during MLB awards time, but the lion's share of the blame must be given to Sabermetricians. Talking about baseball would be a lot more enjoyable if these douchebags got a fucking attitude adjustment.

On the Braves move, civil rights, and what baseball represents

Yesterday, regarding the Atlanta Braves announcement that they will move out of downtown Atlanta and into the suburbs, Grantland posted a map of the Greater Atlanta area that shows where Braves ticket buyers come from. Give it a look:


As you can see, Braves ticket buyers are coming from the north of the city of Atlanta - the suburbs. Not the generalize, but the suburban areas surrounding a city are usually pretty white in racial make up.

Looking at this map, I can't help but think of the bittersweet irony with the Braves organization wanting to move to Cobb County. Strictly as a business decision, does the move make sense? Yes. Despite the Braves currently playing in a relatively young stadium, they don't own it or control the surrounding area. Nor is the stadium close (relatively speaking) to where its fan base is located. That fan base, as you can generalize from looking at the map, is pretty white. But that's not what the Braves have traditionally represented.

The Braves moved from Milwaukee to Atlanta in 1966, and they took Hank Aaron with them. This was a big fucking deal. Think of the social landscape of America at that time. The Civil Rights movement gained steam in the 1950's and getting into even just the summaries of landmark events of that movement would lead to an incredibly large blog post, so mentioning a couple of the remarkable names will need to suffice: Rosa Parks, Martin Luther King, Malcolm X just to scrape off the top of the list. The South was fighting against desegregation, which led to George Wallace's run for president as a third party candidate in 1968 with a racist platform and won most of the South - Georgia included. This was an explosive time in American History, yet in the middle of it, the South - the Deep South, not just some Mason-Dixon border city near the North - got its first Major League Baseball franchise. And it came with an all star player who was black.

Pretty amazing. Baseball meant a lot more to American culture (not to mention peace, harmony, and unity) back then.

Other cities in the South could have tried to get a franchise. In this age, we think of Atlanta as a major city but that wasn't the case in the 1960's. Political leaders in Atlanta at that time realized the city's potential for growth if it got with the program of embracing, instead of rejecting, culture; and they brought the Braves to town. This attitude shift in the politics of one city in the Deep South caused it to grow. Atlanta's population in 1960 was around 487,000 - now the population of the Greater Atlanta area is over 5,457,000.

Conversely, let's look at another Deep South city: Birmingham, AL, had a 340,000 in 1960. While not as large as Atlanta, it definitely had the potential for growth. But Birmingham didn't grow. The city's population has dipped to around 212,000; the Greater Birmingham area has a population of 1,136,000.

Birmingham faced the same choice that Atlanta had in the 1960's: accept normative cultural standards and be embraced by America or stay the same. Birmingham made their bed, and I'm sure you know how the cliche goes from there.

This is why the Braves moving away from the city of Atlanta is sad. In the 1960's, the Braves represented the best of America; what America was capable of achieving.

And now? Now they represent the cultural phenomenon of "white flight." When the Braves open their new stadium in Cobb County, it won't just be a sad day for Atlanta; or for baseball - it'll be a sad day for this country. That isolation you feel - be it culturally, socially, or politically - it's represented in this Braves move away from Atlanta. The Braves moving to the urban core of a Deep South city in the 1960's represented America going in the right direction, but this move reflects a cultural shift of present day America going in the wrong direction.

Lynchpins of the Lineup

I don't need to tell you that the Red Sox scored a bazillion runs last season. At first, I didn't know how to gauge the strength of Sox hitting by their runs scored since they teed off on bad pitchers spectacularly well but good pitching could stop them cold - a trend which continued for about 16 innings into the ALCS (and two near no hitters) before the Sox turned it around for good.

Can the Red Sox hit this well in 2014? Probably not. Why? Jacoby Ellsbury.

The beautiful thing about the 2013 Red Sox is that every player stepped up: Gomes, Nava, Victorino, Iglesias (remember when he batted .400 for a couple months?), and Salty all made contributions that nobody was expecting. Iggy is gone but couldn't be expected to repeat his performance anyway. Gomes, Nava and Victorino will be back, so why not bring Salty back? That's been a hot conversation topic lately.

Better options for catcher exist on the market right now - and that's discounting Brian McCann, who wants a big contract but has big attitude problems - but if everyone thought that Ellsbury was coming back then I'd lean towards the position that bringing Salty back isn't a huge issue. Salty will never be a middle of the order hitter, and he probably won't put up his 2013 numbers again at the plate; but he's definitely one of the better bottom of the order hitters in baseball right now. The Red Sox had a strong batting order from top to bottom and you don't want to disturb that.

Unfortunately for Salty (and for us, as Red Sox fans), Ellsbury's contributions at the top of the batting order are far more important. Ellsbury is not replaceable; and with him leaving, the Red Sox need to shore up their fielding.

And Salty just can't fucking field his position.

This doesn't just come down to close plays at the plate in the World Series - Salty was horrible throughout the 2013 season. He has difficulty performing basic tasks behind the plate, like quelling the opponent's running game. Salty allowed 89 stolen bases in 2013 (most in MLB), and he had the most baserunners try and steal off of him, too. Comparing Salty to an average catcher like A.J. Pierzynski (which is not only being generous to Salty, but rings with some irony since the Sox are talking to Pierzynski), A.J. had a 33% caught stealing percentage and allowed 49 stolen bases in 2013. Salty allowed 40 more stolen bases; coincidentally, he also hit 40 doubles. Since a stolen base is essentially a double (or more, in some instances), you see where Salty's defense really does negate his contributions at the plate.

Pierzynski provides better hitting and fielding than Salty. Alternatively, Dioner Navarro doesn't have as much gravitas at the plate but he has sure hands behind the plate. Even Ryan Lavarnway looks like a better option than Salty.

Lavarnway threw out 40% of baserunners in Pawtucket in 2013; and he hit .299 in 77 AB for Boston in 2013. It's worth remembering that many of Lavarnway's at-bats were against staff aces; and with a cold bat, since he went days between playing in games. Lavarnway got hits off of pitchers like David Price, James Shields, Justin Verlander, and Mark Buehrle (the Buehrle whose second half ERA was 3.18, not the sucky Buehrle at the beginning of the season). Farrell was wise to rest Salty on days when the Red Sox opposed a staff ace, but worth noting that Salty's hitting stats might be worse if he had to face the pitchers they forced Lavarnway to hit off of - and Lavarnway ended up hitting .299. That's a pretty good argument against everyone who says that Lavarnway isn't ready.

The argument about which catcher would be a better fit could go on until Christmas, but it doesn't take away from the Red Sox needing better defense behind the plate. The loss of Ellsbury will be a hit to the lineup that the Red Sox cannot recover from; the 2014 lineup will not be as strong as the 2013 one. That being the case, acquiring a catcher who may only hit .240 with little power but can hold off the opposing team's running game would make the Red Sox better than they would be with Salty behind the plate. The Red Sox won't have the excess hitting in 2014 to cover up for Salty's lack of ability to field his position.

I know the pink hats might bust out in tears. I know I've never been the biggest Salty fan. But, you have to admit, this is a pretty objective case for letting the Salty Era in Boston end.

Communiqué from the Pompous

Mariano Rivera wins the Comeback Of the Year award? That's OK, NY - we'll just let Lackey clinch a World Series for us. No biggie. #redsox
— NotWallyTheGreenMons (@NotWallyGM) November 5, 2013

Dear baseball fans who are not Red Sox fans:

Sorry. For them winning. Truly.

I'm sorry I can publish tweets like the one above. Just being able to say this stuff makes me feel like a total asshole.

I'm sorry the Red Sox make a lot of money for being a middle market team. What's that, you're screaming? Something about the Red Sox being a "big market" team? Whatever the fuck that is. Speaking strictly in terms of population size, there are larger markets in America: Dallas, Houston, Philly, DC, Miami, and Atlanta to name a few. Phoenix and Detroit aren't far behind Boston, either. I'm sorry that the Red Sox decided to expand their market by placing A, AA, and AAA farm teams within a hundred miles of Boston. That's an erudite marketing strategy for an erudite city.

So, you know, sorry.

I'm sorry that the Red Sox have had to maximize the revenues they can generate from a ballpark built in 1912. They didn't have the benefit of receiving public financing to build a new ballpark - like The Mets, Brewers, Reds, Cardinals, Padres, Phillies, Twins and Marlins all received in this young century. The Red Sox didn't receive the benefit of having the government shove tens of millions of dollars its way so it could still make excuses about being a "small market" team? Gee, sorry.

I'd like to offer a special apology to the Minnesota Twins. The Red Sox didn't mean to sign David Ortiz and see him have a hall of fame career after you released him for absolutely no compensation at all. Ortiz wanted a couple million after hitting 20 home runs and 75 RBI for you in 2002. Most organizations would consider that to be a steal, but you're "small market" so I understand. You had better places to spend money, like securing public financing for a new stadium; then seeing the I-35 bridge collapse because of desperately needed infrastructure repairs.

Sorry. Totally our fault.

I'm sorry that I think the media is biased against Boston. We only had to hear about how the Cardinals received a "fair" obstruction call a couple days after the media decided to run with wild accusations that Jon Lester doctored the ball in game 1 from a credible source - a 25 year old Cardinals A ball pitcher. Such an expert.

I'm sorry some feel like Boston's victory is a result of a conspiracy because of the Marathon Bombings. And I'm sorry to have read some of your bombing jokes - which were all insipid, unoriginal piles of shit, by the way. I play an insult comic on Twitter, so I think I can reasonably judge what jokes are and are not good. Your bombing jokes fucking bombed.

I'm sorry that the anti-Boston media bias forced some journalists to question the meaning of the Red Sox World Series victory. I'm sorry that I had to publicly take one of you to task; which resulted in launching a conversation among New Englanders that was honest but, unfortunately, not unique given the circumstances. I'm sorry you don't know how we feel. I'm sorry that you never asked us.

I'm sorry. Truly. Please accept my humble apologies, and I'll try to be less pompous the next time the Red Sox win. And yes, there will be a next time.

Missing the Point [Updated]

Regarding game three last night, Red Sox fans can do a lot of second guessing regarding how Farrell managed the game, why the hell did Salty attempt that throw to third base, etc. But all of that guessing misses the point.

The point is to have the game be played and officiated fairly. Period. Unfortunately, that didn't happen. 

When umpires blows call, that's a bad thing - could be a stupid, dumb luck bad thing, but its still bad. What makes the "obstruction" call on Middlebrooks worse than a blown call is that the home plate umpire chose to make it; it was an opinionated judgment call. The rule for obstruction states that if a fielder continues to lie on the ground after attempting to field a ball then he's guilty of obstruction. That sounds cut and dry if you completely discount the fact that Middlebrooks was clearly trying to get up from being on the ground. He wasn't trying to obstruct the play; Craig didn't even trip over Middlebrooks' feet, he tripped over the back of a player clearly trying to get up. 

The umpire didn't have to judge this as obstruction. Additionally, I'd love to see a time during the regular season where that is called obstruction. Joe Maddon has his Devil Rays infielders block second or third base from a baserunner all the time (as I pointed out on October 9) and they never, ever call obstruction on it - and that's intentional obstruction that the Devil Rays start teaching their players to perform when they are still in the minor leagues. So Maddon can issue a strategy to intentionally obstruct baserunners, but when Middlebrooks tries picking himself up off the ground after diving for an errant throw, then the umpires call obstruction? In a pivotal game of the World Series? Really?

That's not fair. Period. 

The umpires chose to make this call; it was not a bad call that they missed. They chose to make a ruling that gave the Cardinals a victory in the World Series - thus tainting the marquee series of baseball. 

When will Major League Baseball fix this horrible, unfair, unbalanced officiating? The umpires have already ruined a perfect game, and they ruined an NL wild card game last season with the worst judgment call ever on the Infield Fly rule. Now the umpires have ruined a World Series. How far is too far before MLB finally fixes their umpire problem?

Update #1: Theh0pester points out that Allen Craig wasn't even in the basepath.

@NotWallyGM craig isnt even in the basepath pic.twitter.com/NHV9y4HKxm
— The Hopester (@Theh0pester) October 27, 2013

For those of you strict rule book types, MLB Rule 7.08 clearly states the following: "Any runner is out when -- (a) (1) He runs more than three feet away from his baseline to avoid being tagged unless his action is to avoid interference with a fielder fielding a batted ball." Craig is more than three feet away from the baseline, tripping over Middlebrooks who isn't in the baseline.

Why was a silly judgment call on obstruction cited over this very clearly stated rule which requires no opinionated determination on what the fielder was doing? Why cite an ambiguous rule when an unambiguous rule will supersede it? 

Update #2: Joe Torre should be barred from Cooperstown. Since becoming VP of Baseball Operations after he retired from managing the Yankees, baseball's umpires have become insufferable. Why does Joe West still have a job? Why is CB Bucknor allowed to be a punk on the field? Why do I even know the names of these people - umpires aren't supposed to be part of the game! Joe Torre has refused to fix baseball's problem with the umpires, and he continues to let the problem fester. Placing a plaque for Torre in the Hall of Fame would be a disgrace to the sport.

Update #3: This claim by Crew Chief Hirschbeck about Craig establishing his own baseline is laughable: “Don’t forget, the runner establishes his own baseline. If he’s on second on a base hit and rounds third wide, that baseline is from where he is, way outside the line, back to third and to home plate, it’s almost a triangle. So the runner establishes his own baseline.”

Let's go through a lesson in basic math for the benefit of Hirschbeck, since it appears that he needs a refresher. If a baserunner rounds a base wide then he voluntarily places himself at a disadvantage by increasing the amount of distance between him and the base. Craig, however, did not round third base - he tried to give himself a path to home that's shorter than the one provided on the baseline by staying off said baseline; on the infield side of third base. Ironically, if Craig picked the longer path - the path that's actually on the baseline - Middlebrooks wouldn't have been in his way since Middlebrooks was not obstructing the baseline.

Why defend a baserunner who chose a shorter path to home that was offline the baseline, and in the path of a fielder who just dove for the ball? There's no logic in that.

@NotWallyGM @KBlairSTL pic.twitter.com/QWGWP9ug8t
— Jacob Lowe (@shawtygot_LOWE) October 27, 2013

Update #4: In my first update, the part of MLB Rule 7.08 that I quoted might not have been the best example since it discusses actions due to a batted ball. Let's look at the full text for Rule 7.08(a):

7.08 Any runner is out when—
(a) (1) He runs more than three feet away from his base path to avoid being tagged unless his action is to avoid interference with a fielder fielding a batted ball. A runner’s base path is established when the tag attempt occurs and is a straight line from the runner to the base he is attempting to reach safely; or
(2) after touching first base, he leaves the base path, obviously abandoning his effort to touch the next base;

Craig's right to establish his own path to homeplate is a hot topic, but from the text of this rule, Craig only has the right to establish a base path when "the tag attempt occurs." Middlebrooks never had the ball so there couldn't have been a tag attempt; therefore the path to the next base must be the baseline. Why wasn't Craig called out for not being on the baseline? Did he intentionally choose to run off the baseline and trip over Middlebrooks to get an obstruction call? If so, then that's a pretty dirty way to play baseball.

An ALCS of Seeing Everything

Game two of the ALCS was a microcosm of the Red Sox season, featuring two themes I've mentioned throughout this season: their inability to hit good pitching and how they can hammer bad pitching.

Luckily for us, the latter won out as Leyland relied on his bullpen after the 7th inning the the Sox gritted out a walkoff win in a game where they couldn't touch the Tigers starter Max Scherzer. I hope Leyland doesn't decide to make his starters pitch complete games, because then the Sox might be in trouble - we'll see. And we'll see it at home, because this series is surely coming back to Fenway.

Fraud Maddon

Joe Maddon is a fraud. Everyone in Boston knew this because we're intelligent baseball fans; we never bought into this "Joe Maddon is a genius!" crap that's been the autocratic diktat of the all-knowing baseball pundits for years. But after the last two games this week at the ugliest stadium in baseball, the façade is finally crumbling - Maddon's stash of gold has been revealed as a pile of pyrite. Maddon became a parody of himself, and no matter how many more "Dress like a Prep Boy!" clubhouse themed days he hosts, we know for certain now that the Emperor wears no clothes. (Take that figuratively please, because vom.)

The two pillars of Maddon's reign are cheating and outstanding pitching. Maddon has nothing without the Devil Rays' front office drafting well and stocking their farm system with Cy Young-caliber arms; conversely, you could make any monkey Tampa Bay's manager and they could win games with the starting rotations that Maddon has been given over the years.  The only thing this says about Maddon's managerial abilities is that he's a grade above Bobby Valentine and your average MLB bench coach.  That's not genius, that's just average.

What's brings Maddon to a new level of annoying - what the all-knowing baseball pundits consider to be "genius" - is the shitacular way Maddon plays baseball.  Simply put: he cheats. Maddon has his batters call time when the opposing pitcher is about to throw; cheating. Maddon has his infielders physically block baserunners from accessing a base; cheating. I could focus on his incessant pitching changes right now, but first let's look at the second act of cheating that I noted.

In a Red Sox / Devil Rays series at Fenway in 2008, one of Maddon's storm troopers physically blocked Coco Crisp from stealing second base by sticking his foot in front of the bag. Crisp sled head first and almost injured himself because blocking the base is a dick move. Crisp learned his lesson, and the next time he tried stealing second base he went in spikes high. The Devil Rays took offense (disregarding the fact that their action which preceded this event was more egregious) and Maddon ordered Crisp to get plunked. We all know about the brawl that happened next.

Crisp should have been called safe the first time he tried stealing second base because Maddon's storm trooper obstructed him. Maddon has grown used to umpires letting him cheat, which explains why every Tampa Bay fan (the true "162 Strong," since there's only 162 of them) flipped their shit when Quentin Berry was tagged by Zobrist before touching second base on Monday night, yet he was given the steal. Zobrist obstructed Berry and his cheating was called out - finally!

Remove one pillar and the house risks collapsing. With the cheating element of Maddon Baseball crumbling, the only thing this king of nothing has left to stand on is Tampa's spectacular pitching.

So what does the genius do? Instead of starting Matt Moore on short rest or using Chris Archer, he gives the ball to Jeremy Hellickson. This move is an apt metaphor for how empty Maddon's managerial style is. Hellickson was once one of Tampa's prized pitchers, with a deserved Rookie of the Year award to back him up. But this future Cy Young award winner derailed his career this season, posting a 5.17 ERA - and his ERA was above 7.00 during the second half of 2013. Maddon is nothing without the efforts of the pitchers he's been given, yet instead of relying on a better example of those pitchers, Maddon gives Hellickson the ball in one of the most important games in the history of this franchise.

What was Hellickson even doing on Tampa's playoff roster?

Predictably, hilarity ensued as Maddon was forced to use his bullpen in the second inning last night; then he kept making pitching changes last night. The more times Maddon waddled out to the mound, the more he became a parody of himself. Unable to cheat or manage his pitching staff, Maddon didn't know what to do. Here was Maddon the Genius, the second coming of Tony LaRussa, he who is surely headed to Cooperstown, one of the greatest managers in a generation - and he burned all of his options in an elimination game. Actually, let's not pussyfoot by saying Maddon had merely "burned" his options. No, it is more accurate to say that Maddon got a bucket of gasoline, summarily dumped it on all of his options, lit a match and exclaimed to himself: "This will work! It's foolproof!"

Geniuses leave themselves with a viable Plan B. Farrell's genius is yet-to-be-determined, but he limited his moves to later in the game.  When Farrell replaced Drew and Salty with Bogaerts and Ross, that move ended up being decisive in the Red Sox victory. Nobody is calling Farrell a genius because of this move, but he left himself with viable options late in the game and won.

Maddon mismanaged his pitching, Maddon got called out on his cheating, and Maddon lost. This man is not a genius - on the contrary, he just proved himself to be a total dipshit. If anyone who gets paid to write about baseball says otherwise, they should be immediately demoted to fucking Burger King.

The Red Sox are moving on because John Farrell is a superior manager. Suck it, Tampa Bay.

Finding Baseball

One thing that, at times, annoys me about myself is my ability to microfocus - I can pick a topic and harp on it until it's unbearable.  And I don't know if you've noticed, but I have a rather obsessive personality. I must focus on something; anything.  This year, I chose to focus on baseball.  This seemed natural for a couple of reasons: Sabrmetician bullshit and Red Sox bullshit.

The Red Sox bullshit started in 2011, of course.  That evil fucking year when the Red Sox were flying high and there was no conception of a September collapse where the Red Sox wouldn't make the playoffs. Whoops. Even though Game 162 of 2011 was played in the regular season, it should hold the same rank in the compendium of Red Sox heartbreak as Game 6 of the 1986 World Series, or Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS. Afterwards, the Red Sox fired Tito Francona, hired Bobby Valentine, lost stalwarts Jason Varitek and Tim Wakefield, and as the 2012 campaign progressed the Red Sox became easy to hate.  MARLON MOTHERFUCKING BYRD, need I say more?

Additionally, the end of the 2012 season played into the rise of the douchebag Sabrmetcians due to the MVP WAR (I use this phrase with my tongue firmly in my cheek) over Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout. Miggy won the hardware, but the Sabrmetcians say Mike Trout is the true MVP.  Despite the majority of MLB players saying that Miguel Cabrera really did deserve the MVP award, Sabrmetcians went as far as claiming that science was on their side in declaring Mike Trout the true MVP.  What a bunch of douchebags - who would take themselves so seriously over a game?

By the end of 2012, my reaction to all of this became one long, sustained verbal cockpunch.  I was just in that fucking mood.

Thus began my cycle of microfocusing on the 2013 Red Sox season.  At the beginning of this season, I started taking the Red Sox very seriously - too seriously. Watching every game, scrutinizing every play, eyefucking every pitch like it had double-d breasts. Being a total dick.

Lately, I've exited out of my microfocusing cycle.  Instead of watching every game, I'd listen to Sox on the radio instead and do other things - cooking, reading, drinking, picking out which one of my followers will be the next to receive a big green cockpic, etc.

Passively listening to Sox games reminds me that the national past time exists for passing time. Baseball isn't simplistic like football, where games aren't played often thus allowing all of the 'roided up concussions, brutality, and tiny prick chest beating to be digested over the course of a lazy Sunday.  Baseball isn't meant to be focused on 100% of the time - indeed, every team plays 162 games and it's impossible for anyone to focus on all of them - it's there to allow you to focus on something else while cheering for your team.  This fact makes me feel guilty, since I've made quite a few posts this season that have been disparaging to some Red Sox players when, truth be told, this 2013 team has grown on me. (Yes, even Salty.)  And isn't that the point?  Isn't that what they were supposed to do?

I had less fun observing baseball when I've visually observed it; watching every game.  Conversely, I've had more fun listening to the Sox while doing other things. I'm finding baseball again, and I love it.

Taking in baseball differently doesn't mean I'll have less to say about the sport.  It doesn't mean that won't freak out over the playoffs and want to watch every game, either - I mean, let's be normal here. It's the fucking playoffs. I don't think the opinions I've expressed in the past are wrong, either. But this isn't Bobby Valentine's or MARLON MOTHERFUCKING BYRD's Red Sox team anymore. Time to for me to focus more trash talk on the opponents.

Pre-Playoffs Notes

In 2012, myself and everyone else on the planet predicted that the Blue Jays would win the AL East.  And I've been critical of a few players all season.

Heading into October: Red Sox are in first place, Blue Jays sucked, and despite some challenging times throughout the course of the year, players like Napoli and Salty have put in a decent season.

So, amends must be made.  People like myself must be punished.  Going forward, this means I won't be ranting about Napoli or Salty that much -- a fair punishment, because this takes away half of my writing topics.  I won't even point out Salty's question defense... He has been catching more baserunners lately, though I'm not sure how much responsibility he bares for the wild pitch that placed the eventual winning run on third last night.  I watched the pitch from the Bud Deck and can't find a video highlight.  I know it was scored as a wild pitch, but I didn't have the greatest view and wanted to see the TV shot.

Regardless, I'm punished so I can only comment on how I can't comment on that.  Like 2004, this 2013 roster has a lot of players turning in unexpected career years (Koji, Carp, Nava, the emergence of Iglesias; and hell, Gomes almost counts since he's had only two better seasons).  In spring training, nobody was thinking "Carp is gonna kill it!" when he finally won a roster spot over Lyle Overbay.  And nobody thought "Koji is going to turn in one of the best seasons a closer has ever pitched!" with Bailey and Hanrahan starting the season in the bullpen. These performances are largely based on luck more than anything else; and I wouldn't expect to see them repeated.

But there's nothing like getting lucky in October.  Let's hope their streaks continue.

Patience, grasshoppers

I've had a lot of criticism regarding the Red Sox this season.  With the team playing white hot baseball right now, I've been reluctant to write about it because, honestly, I don't want to jinx it. 

After getting rest (and slumping) in August, Mike Napoli has been one of the key players for the Red Sox this month.  His strikeouts are down -- way down -- and he has 21 homers with 87 RBIs.  He's stayed healthy and vested all contract options, earning him the full amount of his one year deal.  His fielding at first base has been above average as well; though I wouldn't claim it's worthy of a gold glove. (Only reason why I bring that up is because some ESPN analysts are saying Napoli deserves a gold glove.)

Guess that means I have a heaping helping of crow to fuck my face with, right?

Maybe.  There are some troubling statistics to look at, though, before considering whether Ben should give Napoli a multi-year deal. 

First stat: How many stadiums has Napoli homered in?  Six -- Fenway, Yankee Stadium, Rogers Centre, Dodger Stadium, Angels Stadium, and SafeCo Field. 

Second: Of those stadiums, Napoli has hit 9 homers a Fenway, 5 at Rogers Centre, and 4 at Yankee Stadium -- that's 18 of his 21 HR reserve to just 3 ballparks. 

Third: Overall, Napoli has hit 6 homers against both Toronto and the Yankees.  With 12 homers against two teams, Napoli has scattered his other 9 homers. 

Finally, fourth: The quality of pitching Napoli tees off against is still sub-standard.  This month, he's homered against a minor league call up (Evan Reed), another minor league call up (Brett Marshall), a bad journeyman with a 6.04 ERA (David Huff), and Boone Logan.  Logan is the only decent pitcher out of that bunch -- the Yankees also found out that his elbow is injured.  He's currently day-to-day and hasn't pitched in a game since Napoli homered off of him. 

So the fourth stat is filled with 4 bums.  Napoli has doubled off of David Price and Alex Cobb, great pitchers, but he's just not bringing it against great pitchers.  

Like I mentioned, Napoli is striking out less and having a great month of September.  I hope he's working his swing to the point where he'll damage great pitchers in the playoffs, but since his power numbers are greatly weighted to certain teams and bad pitchers, I'm feeling some trepidation.

We just have to wait and see. 

The Monster is Hungry

The main axiom we learned about the Red Sox front office deploying after the 2011 debacle is how they can no longer "Feed the Monster".  After the long term contracts given to John Lackey, Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford (along with shorter, less costly contract extensions given to Beckett, Lester and Buchholz), the team hadn't been to the playoffs since 2009.  So, the new wisdom dictates that long term contracts don't produce the desired results; and henceforth, free agents will not be signed to long term deals.  No more feeding the "monster" -- that is, us, the fan base, looking for reasons to be excited by this team.

But the monster is hungry.  And if the morsels that fall off John Henry's plate don't fill our tummies, we will seek sustenance elsewhere.

As ardent fans, I know we're stuck in a Red Sox bubble wherein we microfocus our attention on the team.  But outside of our bubble, there's an almost palpable lack of enthusiasm  for the Red Sox.  Attendance is down, and the Sox are averaging 34,530 fans per game.  That's good for tenth in total draw in MLB, and a cool 3,000 fans down per game from last year's average.  And the 2012 team sucked.   It may be hard for us to imagine, but fact is many Boston sports fans aren't showing a lot of interest in this year's team.

The interest levels certainly aren't at the levels where they were in 2011, when Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford received mega-deals.  After the 2007 World Series victory, the 2008 team was one game away from going to another World Series; and the 2009 team made it to the playoffs.  Interest waned in 2010 as Sox suffered from an insufferable amount of injuries, and the front office fed the monster to renew fan interest in 2011.

After the collapse, the experiment to win over fans with Bobby Valentine failed (and "failed" is putting it lightly). The sell out streak was obviously a joke, with the front office giving tickets away for free just to claim that games were "sold out".  I went to a couple September 2012 games, and Fenway was half empty.  Nobody cared.

Perhaps Boston sports fans are still feeling a hangover from the 2011 collapse and 2012 debacle, but when reviewing the reasons for lack of fan interest in a Red Sox team that has been in first place for the majority of the season, historians (those self-important sports historian types; you know, assholes like myself) may include the teams moves in the 2012 offseason.

Think about it for a second.  After absconding large contracts, what did the Red Sox do?  Besides signing another member of the Drew family (who started the season on the disabled list), a back of the rotation starter, and a Flyin' Hawaiian, the biggest move of the offseason was acquiring Mike Napoli.  This was supposed to be Ben Cherington's proletariat coup after jettisoning Adrian Gonzalez -- Ben nabbed a first baseman who could rake for a quarter of the cost of that God-loving primadonna whose power disappeared when he arrived at Fenway.

But the contract negotiations dragged on.  And on.  And on...  A couple months passed before Napoli's deal was finally reduced to a minuscule one year, $5 million with incentives because of a degenerative hip condition.  Texas must have known about this condition -- after all, they didn't even give Napoli a qualifying offer that would have placed the team in line to receive a draft pick from the Red Sox when they signed Napoli.  Texas just wanted to get rid of this supposed power threat; a situation that I found very odd.

Or very telling.  How has Ben's coup performed this season?  Well, strikeout.  Strikeout.  More strikeouts.  Men on base?  Strikeout.  Ortiz leading the league in intentional walks?  Shocker, and strikeout.  Another whiff.  More strikeouts.  And on, and on, and on... How do you think this looks to other Boston sports fans?  It's a fucking embarrassment.

But, since the Red Sox didn't want to sign free agents who would cost them draft picks, it's what we're stuck with.  This strategy of not giving up draft picks, and shying away from long term deals, backfired when the Sox didn't pursue Anibal Sanchez.  Instead, Dempster was signed -- another coup, the front office assured us -- and Dempster has sucked.  So the Red Sox just traded one of their top prospects to acquire Jake Peavy.  Not giving up draft picks can be considered wise, but when weighed against trading a top prospect to get another back of the rotation starter since the other lackluster starter acquired during the offseason can't get the job done, the plan falls apart.

And Boston sports fans have noticed this.  Those little monsters are hungry, and they're about to jump on the Patriots bandwagon.  Cherington, et al., only have themselves to blame for the lack of interest in the Red Sox right now.

Perhaps it's time to adopt some new organizational axioms.

Who's the winner in the Red Sox/White Sox deal?

The Detroit Tigers, of course.

Detroit receives Jose Iglesias, a young shortstop who is a wizard with the glove and has shown some promise with the bat at the Major League level -- a point of much polarizing debate for many fans in Boston.  But even if he bats .220 for the rest of the season, he improves the Tigers' team fielding (which, surprisingly, hasn't been that bad this year) by taking over for an average Jhonny Peralta; who is just going to get suspended anyway.

With Iglesias at short, he makes up for some range lost by having Miguel Cabrera play third base.  This will improve Detroit's starting pitchers, who were already doing a decent job of pitching around their defense to get outs and wins.  Max Scherzer leads the AL with 15 wins, and only one Detroit starter has an ERA above 4.00.

The Red Sox get Jake Peavy, but they have opened up third base to be manned by a revolving door of minor league players.  If Stephen Drew suffers another injury, then both shortstop and third base will share that revolving door of minor leaguers.  Bringing prospects up has worked well sometimes for the Red Sox this season -- see, errr, Jose Iglesias -- but the Red Sox have placed themselves in a position where they are depending upon undependable wildcards at third base for the rest of the season.  This trade has the potential to blow up in Ben's face.

Peavy hasn't been that great this season, either.  It could be argued that Brandon Workman would have done a better job starting games.  We'll assume, right now, this strengthens the pitching staff by getting an experienced starter and placing a promising prrospect in the bullpen.  We're going to have to wait and see, though.

As for Chicago, they get three prospects that nobody really cared about.

To summarize the Peavy/Iglesias trade: Detroit fortified their team, Red Sox may have improved their pitching but left themselves a ticking timebomb at third base.  If the Red Sox make it to the ALCS, Detroit will likely be waiting for them.  I'd hate to see Iggy playing well in such a situation.