Wednesday, October 17, 2012

Napoli's bloated Fenway stats

One talking point you'll hear when the Free Agent Hot Stove heats up is Mike Napoli's numbers at Fenway. You'll see gaudy looking wRC+, wOPS+, WAR numbers and a host of other confusing crapola.  Here's the 3 things you really need to know:

  • Napoli feasts off Jon Lester.  He has a .600 BA /.636 OBP/ 2 HR/ 5 RBI career line off Lester.
  • Of Napoli's four homers against the Red Sox last year, two of them came in the 4/17/12 18-3 Texas rout -- the most horrible all around pitching performance by the Red Sox in recent memory.  Napoli homered off Lester and Padilla in that game -- and he got another homer the following day off  Beckett. 
  • Compare Napoli's 2012 stats against the Red Sox with 2010: 1 homers. And 2011: 2 homers. 
Napoli's numbers at Fenway against the Red Sox look spectacular, but if you take out the two game series from April 17-18, 2012, where Sox pitching was at its worst; as well as Napoli's favorable pairing against Lester, and the big gerbil starts looking more pedestrian.  I doubt this guy is going to take the wood to CC Sabathia or Felix Hernandez when they take the mound at Fenway.  Don't let an incredibly small sample size of 2 great games against bad Sox pitching make you think that Napoli is going to be lights out at Fenway. 

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