Kirby Puckett shirtless -- Score!

I found some old baseball cards from the early 90s, back in those pre-web days when every MLB team didn't have a TV contract so seeing a game once or twice a week felt like divine intervention bestowed upon you by some benevolent deity.  Beyond that, you kept up with your team with the daily newspaper and through baseball cards.  What did Wade Boggs hit in 1987?  You didn't know until you found his 1988 Topps card, and under the stats it included some completely useless information like "Wade Boggs has a wife, 2 kids and a dog."  I swear one of his Topps cards had that as a fact.

As baseball card collectors will remember, though, Topps wasn't the only company in town.  They weren't even the best company, but collectors bought their cards regardless of quality because collectors are a little OCD about collecting things.  The best cards in the early 1990s were produced by Upper Deck, who took spectacular photos.  Score was a close second, since their photos weren't as good as Upper Deck but they took time to write a 1-2 paragraph bio of each player on their card.  The historian in me loves this because I love all primary resources, and the player bio on Score cards stands as a first person account to how the player was thought of in the game at that point in time.  The bio that Score provided was far superior to Topps letting me know that Wade Boggs has a dog.

Baseball card companies had weird marketing gimmicks, as well.  Topps's gimmicks were mostly cheesy, but Score's were...  Surreal.  Creepy.  I'm not sure how to describe what you're about to witness.

In 1992, Score feature MLB's best players in a series of cards called "Dream Team".

As you can see, the Dream Team photos were taken in a studio and included a twist.  Score gave baseball fans a close up of Wade Boggs, Will Clark in a suit, Doug Jones contemplating why he has such a horrible mustache, and Benny Santiago playing with his ball. 

Then Score gave us this:

Yes, that is Kirby Puckett.  Shirtless.  His belly button, which we all now know is an "innie", hangs above the B in his name; and the natural satellite that orbits his belly button must have been somewhere behind Kirby's back when this picture was taken. 

Score should be noted for trying to push the baseball card medium out of the hokey corner that Topps had painted the industry into, but, you know... Giving us a half naked Kirby Puckett probably isn't the company's proudest moment. 

The Napoli Mystery is Solved

Not to boost my own ego, but back on November 12 I had a very interesting thought regarding the risk of signing Mike Napoli.  Let's hop in the time machine and take a look at this stroke of genius:

...but it should also be noted that Texas refused to give Napoli a qualifying offer for $13 million a year before he hits the free agent market -- and Texas was ready to talk with David Ortiz if he went to free agency, and they still intend to give Josh Hamilton the boot.  So it's not like Texas doesn't need a big bat or two in their lineup, so why are they willing to let Napoli walk without even the possibility of getting a draft pick for compensation?  Are they that afraid of Napoli actually staying there another year?  Very odd.

Odd indeed.  We've been told by the Red Sox front office, their dutiful PR arms in the Boston media, and bloggers that Mike Napoli was the best option for the Red Sox because signing him wouldn't burn a draft pick; as opposed to signing Swisher or LaRoche where the Sox would have lost a draft pick.  But the only reason why Napoli didn't come with draft pick strings attached is because Texas didn't even give him a qualifying offer.  At the end of the 2012 season, instead of trying to sign this supposedly-prized free agent, Texas opened the door and told Napoli to GTFO.

Besides myself, nobody else found this to be strange.  This is probably because I'm a fucking genius and everyone else was earning a +2.00 WAR for their heightened masturbating abilities when they considered all of those gaudy Sabermetrics that Napoli would create playing 81 games a year at Fenway.  Hey, not everybody can be as fucking awesome as me.

I also have two good hips, which is something Napoli should be jealous of.

Rosenthal indicates the Boston physical revealed a problem with one of Napoli's hips, and it was this hip problem that made Seattle leery of signing him, and may have contributed to the Rangers' reluctance to tender a qualifying offer.

I'll try not to be smug.  Hah, just kidding -- fuck everyone who shoved this so fucking prized free agent down our throats without looking at all the facts.

Right now, Mike Napoli is "still technically a free agent".  It's time for the Red Sox to adopt the wisdom of Texas's front office, cut the bait, and toss this whale back into the ocean.

And we thought Theo had problems with shortstops

Ladies and Gentlemen, meet Ben Cherington.  Carrying on the recent tradition of another Red Sox GM, Theo Epstein, Ben is fucking up the shortstop portion of the roster.

Ben sent Scutaro packing.  Admittedly, Scoots wasn't really a shortstop anymore, as the Rockies and Giants favored him over on the other side of the bag.  After trading Scutaro, Jose Iglesias was brought into spring training and told that he might make the big club.  In fact, Bobby Valentine made it known that he wanted Iggy on the team.  Instead, Mike Aviles was foisted upon us.  Aviles was like a typical shortstop: played good defense, but didn't hit a ton.  So Ben sends Aviles north of the border in exchange for a new manager, fires Cupid, and now -- yes, NOW -- Iglesias will be the starting shortshop of the Red Sox.

Except Ben just signed Stephen Drew.  Drew spent 11 months nursing an ankle injury he got from a slide into home in 2011, a feat that not only makes Ellsbury go "Whoa, why didn't I think of that?", but it reminds me of Stephen's brother in all the wrong ways.  So I really wonder about Stephen Drew's attitude and if that's anything this team really needs, but I'm also annoyed that Ben just give a $9.5 million deal to a 29 year old, injury prone shortstop who has only shown potential to be a great player, but he's never achieved his potential.

Remind you (JD) of anyone (JD) that might (JD) be a similarly (JD) disappointing (JD) player?

In the meantime, Pedro Ciriaco's minor league stats and contributions at the MLB level indicate that he's finally getting things together.  At 27, Ciriaco is old for a prospect, and his AAA numbers were disappointing.  He batting .231 at Indianapolis in 2011, but that average spiked to .301 for Pawtucket in 2012.  Additionally, Ciriaco kept that pace going with Boston, hitting .293 with 16 stolen bases in 272 plate appearances.  You know how many times Stephen Drew has stolen 16 bases?  Never.  Between AAA and MLB last season, Ciriaco stole 30 bases.  Also, unlike Drew, he's been fucking healthy for the past two seasons.

I understand that the organization doesn't want fans to think that it's stealing their money by not signing veteran free agents, but it doesn't mean that a vet has to be signed if you have a better option sitting right there.

The only silver lining to Drew's signing -- indeed, the only way I see this signing amounting to any value at all -- is that it frees up Iglesias to be traded.  The Red Sox can now package Ellsbury, Iglesias and either Salty or Lavarnway into a deal for some prospects.  I doubt they can get MLB level help for those players, and at this point, why would they try?  Blue Jays just signed Dickey, the Rays just improved their offense and they have a pitcher in the minors ready to fill the hole left by James Shields; and even if the Yankees and Orioles don't improve they were still better than the Red Sox last season.  The 2013 Red Sox will still be a basement team even if they got Cliff Lee, so it doesn't really fucking matter.

The only way that grossly overspending on shitty free agents makes sense is if Ben can trade other players for prospects.  If he's unable to do that, then he's pretty much a complete failure. Because these free agent signings suck.  And, at this point, the organization has so grossly mishandled Jose Iglesias that you almost need to trade him elsewhere because he I doubt he thinks that the Red Sox will let him start at shortstop, and those doubts will be reflected in how he plays.  He's set to become a failed prospect, and the only way he'll have value to the Red Sox is if they trade him this offseason.

And gWAR consists of a replacement level puppet that eats people

ESPN posted their methodology for choosing the 100 best baseball players of all time.  Here's a snippet of THIS VERY SERIOUS BASEBALL DECISION MAKING!

That's where GAR comes in. What GAR does is put career WAR in a historical context that takes into consideration both a player's career value and peak value. It starts with career WAR and adds a player's five-year peak WAR, multiplied by 1.6 to put peak and career on an equal scale. For a baseline, replacement level doesn't make sense -- typical replacement level is talent that's freely available, which just won't do when trying to separate the great from the greatest. Instead, we've chosen as the baseline the average of the 20th through 30th best at each position, that sweet spot at which you've stopped talking about inner circle Hall of Famers and started talking about the fictional Hall of Very Good.

I read through that a few times, and... If you actually understood any of that, then your head is up Bill James's ass far enough for you to lick the twinkies he ate five years ago.

Remember when we rated players by watching them play?

Victorino in, Ellsbury out?

I'm trying to figure out next year's batting lineup... OK, somebody tells me if this makes sense: 

1. Ellsbury, CF
2. Pedroia, 2B
3. Ortiz, DH
4. Napoli, 1B
5. Victorino, RF
6. Gomes, LF
7. Middlebrooks, 3B
8. Saltalamacchia/Lavarnway/Ross, C
9. Iglesias, SS

You want to place speed and on-base percentage first, which make Ellsbury and Pedroia a perfect fit for the top of the order.  Ortiz hitting third is obvious, and you want to place Napoli behind him since he's a right handed hitter and you want to keep the lefty/righty combo here so one relief pitcher can't come in and specialize to both a team's sluggers in the late innings.  Ideally, you want to put a lefty behind Napoli... Victorino is a switch hitter, do you place him there or Salty, a natural lefty who can hit for power?  But Salty strikes out a lot and can kill rallies, he's not ideal. 

Beyond Salty or Victorino, Sox have a bunch of righties: Larvarnway, David Ross and Jonny Gomes.  Iggy, of course, will bat no higher then 9th.

So who's going to hit behind Napoli next year?  Since Victorino doesn't provide any power to go along with his speed, he makes more sense at the top of the order -- but the Sox already have a great 1-2 combination up there. 

Call me a conspiracy theorist, but the only way the Victorino deal makes sense is if Ellsbury is now placed securely on the trading block or the Sox intended to bat Ellsbury fifth. 

Money for Question Marks

Three basic points on the Red Sox signing Mike Napoli and Jonny Gomes:

The Good: The Sox batting order is set to beat the fuck out of unsuspecting Southpaws with the addition of righty hitters like Napoli and Gomes.  Both players do have swings that are suited for Fenway, and perhaps they can combine to hit 50 homers a piece over the next couple of seasons.  And if this whole experiment fails, then it only costs the franchise $49 million over 3 years.  A decent chunk of change, but that is only short term. 

The Bad: I'm extremely worried about the durability of both players.  Last season, Napoli and Gomes combined had merely 631 at-bats.  If you're an OBP freak and want to see walks factored in, fine: They combined for 750 plate appearances and a decent OBP.  So the Red Sox have tied up $18 million over the next two years in two players whose combined plate appearances equal one full time player.  That's a warning flag right there.  

The Sox are expecting both of these guys to play full time, but they haven't -- period.  Napoli has tried to go full time for a couple of seasons, and after finally notching over 500 plate appearances last season, he broke with a hammy injury in August, 2012.  Remember what happened to the Rangers' season after that?  Just like the 2011 Red Sox, the Rangers were flying high at the top of their division only to suffer a massive collapse.  If the second wild card spot hadn't been added last season, all the Rangers would have had over the 2011 Red Sox is a division tie-breaking game 163 -- which they would have lost, and then everyone would compare the great collapses of the 2011 Red Sox and Braves, and the 2012 Rangers.  Mike Napoli's faulty health played a key role in the Rangers collapse, and that's the player the Red Sox just signed to a big deal to replace Adrian Gonzalez, one of the scapegoats of the 2011 collapse.  I'm going to have an aneurysm if I continue to think about this. 

Beyond their questionable offensive stats (Napoli has had only one stand out season, and it certainly wasn't in 2012), the durability of Napoli and Gomes to last through 162 games as full time players is questionable, at best.  Players generally don't jump from being used primarily as part timers to full timers easily.  Napoli breaking down during a key point in the pennant race last season certainly isn't a good sign. 

And the Ugly: How does this increase the Red Sox chances of winning against the Blue Jays and Yankees?  I know the Red Sox haven't address pitching needs yet, but they just replaced a first baseman who gave them 15 homers but raked in RBIs (15 HR and 86 RBI for Gonzo last season) with a player who had 24 HR, but just 56 RBI because he can't hit.  Gonzo batted .300 and Napoli batted just .227, and you can see the difference that average makes in the RBI totals both players amassed.  As for Gomes, if he replaces Cody Ross, then the Sox just swapped a full time player who gave them .267/22 HR/ 81 RBI for a part time player who went .262/18 HR/46 RBI last season.

So how have these moves improved the team in comparison to last season?  The Yankees haven't changed much (ironically, A-Rod's surgery might give them a chance to improve over the first 3 months of the season), and it looks like the Rays are going for a building year next season, but the Blue Jays are vastly improved.  And Baltimore, despite their shitty starting pitchers, has the offense to put up a decent amount of runs and the bullpen to shut most good offenses down in late innings during the regular season.  

If the Red Sox don't start winning, I think fan interest will wane and Boston will become more of a normal baseball town.  You know, one of those cities that doesn't have 30,000+ fans showing up for every single game -- which would place them in the vast majority of Major League cities.  If the revenue stream drops while other teams revenue streams increase, then the Red Sox better hope all of their prospects pan out because signing good veteran talent will be difficult. 

Bottom line, these moves have not improved the offense of the Red Sox in comparison to their 2012 squad.  The starting rotation needs vast improvement if the 2013 squad is going to win any games and compete. 

Jack Morris and the Dwight Evans Class of Pitchers

I enjoyed reading Tom Verducci's creative look at the stats for Jack Morris's career, because it reminded me of how Morris went out there and was a valuable asset to eat innings and give the bullpen a day off.  This is the kind of bulldog pitcher that any team would want near the top of their rotation.

Jack Morris also had a career ERA of 3.90.  No pitcher in the Hall of Fame has an ERA that high.

That's the only stat that matters.  Jack Morris is like the Dwight Evans of pitchers, an outstanding player and you don't want to say anything disparaging about his career.  Which is why debating whether or not a player should be in the Hall of Fame can be torture sometimes.

Something writers aren't supposed to admit is that they just stared at the end of their last paragraph for a long time, wondering what to follow it up with.  Sigh.  I don't want to say anything bad about Jack Morris, he just doesn't belong in the Hall of Fame, OK?  Please don't force me to make some faux-witty comment that could insult him, I just don't wish him for him to be in a debate that he doesn't belong in.